954
FXUS61 KRNK 301841
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WERE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, IN
ADDITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR PROVIDING A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM
AIR RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
2) MUCH STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AND GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WAS UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING/SW FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF GENTLE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WERE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES, THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THE
MIDWEST AND TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. IN THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION, WE WERE LOCATED IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR, WITH A
WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH, A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WAS PROMOTING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVERALL. WITH THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT, SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS AND HAVE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM AND IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, STORMS STRETCHING FROM NY TO TX WILL BE ONGOING AND
SEVERE AT TIMES. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS WILL DIMINISH
AS IT REACHES OUR DOORSTEP AS THE SOUTHERN HALF DIVES SOUTH.
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEAVIER RAINS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF US BY 8-10 PM. GUSTY SW WINDS AND MODERATE WAA
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S DESPITE CLOUD
COVER.
FOR OUR AREA, NAEFS SPECIFIC HUMIDITY STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
WILL BE BETWEEN +3 AND +4, AND PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1-1.5".
THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE PARAMETERS
ALONG WITH A SLOW- MOVING, MULTI-BOUNDARY SYSTEM WILL MEAN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING. WE HAVE BEEN
TOO DRY TO WORRY ABOUT FLASH FLOODING, WITH THE ENTIRE REGION
HAVING SEEN LESS THAN OR AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
LAST 7 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING BETWEEN A THIRD AND AN
INCH OF RAIN TO THE REGION. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS
CONCERNED, MEAN CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 700 J/KG FOR THE
PIEDMONT, AND LESS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. BULK SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 35 KTS, WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND OR LESS
THAN 100 M2S2. THIS MEANS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LIMITED, DEPENDENT PARTIALLY ON BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, AND
MOSTLY FAVOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL AND
ROTATING STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LESS
LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS MODERATE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LINGERING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUESDAY.
2) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE
CLEARED OUT CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY THEN. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
AND THE LOW TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN CANADA WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, KEEPING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, UP TO
25 MPH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UP TO 35 MPH IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION. THE FLOW OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC WILL UPSLOPE MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN FACES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS THAT
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF US HWY 460.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
SHOW AROUND 0.10" ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, THOUGH THE NC MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 0.20". BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
IN THE 60S, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
40S FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THURSDAY WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE RNK CWA, AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
BUT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER OUR
AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT ENDS UP STALLING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD LATE FRIDAY,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY NORTH OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SPORADIC DUE
TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT FINALLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A WETTING RAINFALL TO
THE ENTIRE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE UPPER 70S/80S. THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS. SATURDAY
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S, WITH 60S/70S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE 60S FRIDAY
MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. ALL TAF
SITES WERE CURRENTLY VFR, BUT WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY AS FIRST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THEN CAMS WERE SHOWING A BREAK OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS BEFORE FALLING APART IN THE MORNING.
EXPECT TSRA TO REDEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 15Z, ALONG WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST BY 01/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS NEAR BLF/LWB LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY DIE OFF WITH A RETURN
TO VFR. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME SKC BY TUESDAY
MORNING IN GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE
STRATUS/SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SAGS CLOSER FROM THE NORTH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB/SH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH
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