760
FXUS61 KRNK 311256
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
856 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR PROVIDING A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM
AIR RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 845 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
2) CLEARING AND TURNING COOLER TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF RESIDUAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND WILL WEAKEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEREAFTER
EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL INCREASED FORCING FOR
ASCENT TRIGGERS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT
OF 5) SOUTH AND EAST OF DANVILLE, MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEADING WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S WILL YIELD
MUCAPES AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS SOMEWHAT MEAGER BUOYANCY
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG EXISTING
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 0-3 KM HELICITY UP TO 100 M2/S2
WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADIC AND HAIL THREAT, WITH
MOST OF THIS THREAT HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. AT THIS TIME, THINKING WE WILL SEE MESSY STORM MODES,
MOSTLY OF THE MULTICELL VARIETY, THAT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO BRING A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY AND COOL TUESDAY
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ON TUESDAY AFTER MONDAY'S FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION, WE WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR NORTH.
COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
FROM THE RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF OUR WESTERN CWA, TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD, WE WILL BE LOCATED IN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
WHICH WILL FETCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY, AND WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
EAST, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FORM ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PECULIAR APPEARANCE TO
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS THE BEST CHANCES AT
RAINFALL WILL BE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA, WHILE THE MORE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS IN THE WEST, AND CENTRAL VA/PIEDMONT AREAS
FURTHER EAST WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO RECEIVE PRECIP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT ENDS UP STALLING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA. IT WILL BE IMPEDED BY A LARGE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH, WHILE
THE CENTRAL LOW TO THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD LATE FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE VA/NC
STATE LINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH
RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SPORADIC DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE REGION AS IT
MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING, TAKING THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WITH IT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE UPPER 70S/80S. THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS. SATURDAY
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S, WITH 60S/70S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE 60S FRIDAY
MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 840 AM EDT MONDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM VFR TO
MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE
PIEDMONT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEREAFTER EXPECT A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER
SEVERE THREAT CLOSER TO THE PIEDMONT WITH POSSIBLE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST BY 10 PM WITH ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS. CLOUDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MVFR STRATUS LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT ANY LINGERING STRATUS TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS RETURNING THE WHOLE AREA
TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE STRATUS/SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS CLOSER
FROM THE NORTH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...JCB/VFJ
AVIATION...PM/SH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page