313
FXUS61 KRNK 010654
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
254 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TODAY PROVIDING A BRIEF COOL
DOWN, FAIR DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH, CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS FOLLOWED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WARM WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG A FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER TODAY, WINDS DIMINISHING.
2) CLOUDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER TODAY, CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORM.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-CONUS STORM
SYSTEM. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET DRAWN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS SPREADING
NORTH, RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2. TEMPERATURES INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AND WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION VIA THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY, THOUGH A COLD FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA IN THE OHIO VALLEY, AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REACH
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WV.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION, AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TRENDING
LOWER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, A 500MB RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA, WHILE AN UPPER LOW PULLS
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL US INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALL IN A ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION JUST TO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA, AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SO
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL ONLY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE KEEPS THE FRONT FROM
ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTHWARD. BY SUNDAY, A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO SEA, AND
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END FOR THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WEATHER HAZARDS: MVFR/IFR CIG ALONG AND WEST OF VA/WV BORDER
THROUGH 15Z/10AM WITH IMPACTS TO BLF/LWB AND LIMITED IMPACTS TO
BCB AND ROA VCNTY. WIND GUSTS 18-25KTS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING PRODUCING TURBULENCE.
IN GENERAL EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 15Z/10AM
THEN DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY. LOW CLOUD ELEMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE 16Z/NOON, TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS WINDS DIMINISH, EXPECT A GRADUAL
DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
AFTER 06Z/2AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH
SUB-VFR STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS CLOSER FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATTM IT APPEARS THIS FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAINS AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONFINED TO THE OHIO AND MID-MS VALLEYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page