396
FXUS61 KRNK 010922
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
522 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TODAY PROVIDING A BRIEF COOL
DOWN, FAIR DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH, CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS FOLLOWED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WARM WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG A FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER TODAY, WINDS DIMINISHING.
2) CLOUDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER TODAY, CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORM.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-CONUS STORM
SYSTEM. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET DRAWN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS SPREADING
NORTH, RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC, CAUSING ENHANCED MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH A
BOUNDARY LIFTING TO THE NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONCENTRATED LONG THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT, THOUGH THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN REGIONS TO ITS EAST AND
WEST RESPECTIVELY COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.
AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER, BETTER-DEFINED FRONT WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY, LIKELY JUST TO OUR NORTH. AS IT BECOMES ZONALLY
ORIENTED, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SET UP JUST NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR WV AND VA BORDER
COUNTIES.
OVERALL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF WAA AND WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHSIDE MAY EVEN TOUCH 90 ONE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TRENDING
LOWER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, A 500MB RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA, WHILE AN UPPER LOW PULLS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION JUST TO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA,
IN THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SO MOST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL ONLY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY, AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS KEEPS THE FRONT FROM
ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTHWARD. BY SUNDAY, A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO SEA, AND
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END FOR THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TO START
THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WEATHER HAZARDS: MVFR/IFR CIG ALONG AND WEST OF VA/WV BORDER
THROUGH 15Z/10AM WITH IMPACTS TO BLF/LWB AND LIMITED IMPACTS TO
BCB AND ROA VCNTY. WIND GUSTS 18-25KTS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING PRODUCING TURBULENCE.
IN GENERAL EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 15Z/10AM
THEN DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY. LOW CLOUD ELEMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE 16Z/NOON, TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS WINDS DIMINISH, EXPECT A GRADUAL
DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
AFTER 06Z/2AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH
SUB-VFR STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS CLOSER FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATTM IT APPEARS THIS FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAINS AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONFINED TO THE OHIO AND MID-MS VALLEYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AS/VFJ
AVIATION...PM
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