857
FXUS61 KRNK 011435
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1035 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH, CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. WARM WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK, BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST ALONG A FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1024 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS DIMINISHING.
2) CLOUDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AIR
IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON,
CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORM.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-CONUS STORM
SYSTEM. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET DRAWN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS SPREADING
NORTH, RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY CLOUD COVER LINGERS PER MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG/EAST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE. WITH CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY BE HELD BACK
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH MID
60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A
FRONTAL FRACTURE/EXTENDED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED
ROUGHLY FROM TX TO PA TO ME AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN HEATING IS GREATEST, AND
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER DUE
TO SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
2) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY UNDER CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT SITUATION AS PART OF THE
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH. FINALLY BY SUNDAY, A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY
THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO KICK A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND IN
THE 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT, AND LOWS AREAWIDE IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT SUB-VFR STRATOCU TO BE SCATTERED OUT AT THE START OF THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST AND STAY UNDER
10KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUB-VFR CIGS WILL START TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND MOST OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE BKN/OVC CIGS AROUND 1500-3000 FT BY LATE WED MORNING.
EXCEPTION WOULD BE BLF WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20+KTS
KEEPING THEM SCATTERED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-VFR STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS CLOSER FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATTM IT APPEARS
THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAINS
AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONFINED TO THE OHIO AND MID-MS VALLEYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...PM/WP
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