601
FXUS61 KRNK 020000
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
2) CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, AND CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD
ALSO STEADILY RISE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT, THE FLOW
SHOULD SWING TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WILL CAUSE
A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
SOUTHEAST WIND COULD GUST UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS THIS MOIST AND COOL AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEDGES AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
WARM FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAW
CLOSER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS A RESULT OF THIS UPCOMING PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
IN THIS UPDATE WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE
50S FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO
RISE FROM THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
COULD JUST BE SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES
LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL LIFT. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO
INTRODUCED ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS THE
UPSLOPE MOISTURE INCREASES, ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 77 AND
FANCY GAP.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
A FRONTAL FRACTURE/EXTENDED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED
ROUGHLY FROM TX TO PA TO ME AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN HEATING IS GREATEST,
AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER DUE TO
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
2) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY UNDER CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT SITUATION AS PART OF
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH. FINALLY BY SUNDAY, A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO KICK A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT, AND LOWS AREAWIDE IN
THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CIRRUS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING, IT SHOULD SWING TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS AT
BLF AND 15-20 KNOTS AT BCB AND LWB. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A LAYER OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS FALLING
LOWER BY SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING DUE TO AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC. RAIN
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE, WHILE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO IFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A COLD
FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY THOUGH
SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...PW
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