587
FXUS61 KRNK 261259
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
859 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
RESIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. A HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES OVER TO PROVIDE DRY
AIR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-30% RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MID-
NEXT WEEK AS A ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH.
UPDATED NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 900 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SMALL
UPDATES WERE MADE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RECENT OBSERVATIONS. RESIDUAL
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE AN ISOLATED WIND
THREAT IS POSSIBLE AND IN THE MORE WESTERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES DUE
TO UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. UP TO ANOTHER 0.1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE REGION BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN UP TO 0.25
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN. OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH TODAY AND BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING NEWD EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS AND WEST OF THE I-77/I-81 CORRIDOR AS SOME
UPPER PVA FORCING EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS AND TRANSLATED SFC COLD
FRONT COULD BE AIDING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERING OFF IN THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BEFORE THE DRIER
AIRMASS AND FRONT PASSES THROUGH. PROGGED SBCAPE COULD GET IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA THOUGH BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING THERE
COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS LATER WITH GUSTY WINDS. SPC DID UPDATE
TO DO A DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK THAT IS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CLIPS THE FAR
EASTERN TIER OF CWA.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERING/CLEARING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH SOME GUSTY GRADIENT NW WINDS KICKING IN.
STRATOCU LOOKS TO HAVE THE TYPICAL LINGERING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SO SHOULD BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL TO SCATTER OUT. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE IT NEAR 80 IN THE PIEDMONT AND MAINLY MID
60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WEATHER QUIET THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN A
WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA.
2) NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE RNK CWA AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO
THE AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONAL ALONG WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH A WARM FRONT
DRAPING DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW WARM, MOIST AIR TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST. POP'S
REMAIN MODEST, AROUND 30-40%, WITH RAIN STAYING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. QPF TOTALS REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND 0.10", WITH ISOLATED AREAS
SEEING AROUND 0.20".
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE 50S DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. BY TUESDAY, WAA
WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S, WITH LOW 80S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES VARY, WITH 30S/40S FOR MONDAY MORNING,
WITH POSSIBLE FROST IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN WEST
VIRGINIA. TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
RECENT WEEKS. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BLOCK THE COLD FRONT FROM MOVING FULLY THROUGH OUR AREA, AND
ONCE AGAIN CAUSES THE FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE DUE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
KEEP RAIN/STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AT THE TAIL
END OF THE OLD FRONT, AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL LIFE THE NOW WARM FRONT NORTH, THROUGH OUR AREA, INCREASING
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE, WHILE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN COLD FRONT THEN FINALLY CLEARS
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S
EACH DAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE
SITES THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS. KDAN AND KLYH COULD HAVE
HIGHER CIGS AND POTENTIALLY SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCATTER OUT FOR KBLF AND KLWB THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SW UNDER 10
KTS THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT WEST TO NW BY AFTERNOON NEAR 10 KTS
GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME OF THE
EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE SOME LOWER
STRATOCU COULD STILL LINGER AT SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN SITES. WINDS
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS OUT OF THE NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARRIVES BY MID- NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
AND MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUB- VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...AB/CG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AB/RCS
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