615
FXUS61 KRNK 261842
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
242 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
RESIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. A HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES OVER TO PROVIDE DRY
AIR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-30% RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MID-
NEXT WEEK AS A ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOL SUNDAY MORNING
2) DRY AIR ENTERS REGION
WITH THE COLD FRONT FINALLY THROUGH, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO BRIEFLY BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING. SINCE CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY, WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID-30S TO 40S REGION WIDE.
WESTERN GREENBRIER MAY HAVE SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILL VALUES. MODELS
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND FROST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE MORE WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO
CLOUDY AND WINDY FOR THIS TO COME INTO FRUITION. NEVERTHELESS, SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
QUICKLY. REGIONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
TO UPPER 70S.
WINDS WILL START OUT MODESTLY WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
8-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES, WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF HOW DRY THE NEW AIR MASS IS,
SURFACE RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20-
30%. THE TIMING OF THE LOWEST RH VALUES MAY BE DURING THE CALMER
SIDE OF THE WINDS BUT IF THE WINDS WERE TO REMAIN STRONGER FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, THERE WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2) A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
3) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL INTO
EARLY MAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PROGRESS DURING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
RAINFALL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN EARLY
AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY, WITH ACTIVITY
THEN SPREADING TO THE PIEDMONT DURING EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE HIT-AND-MISS, WITH NOT ALL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG, AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANY COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT DO NOT SEE ANY ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES
THAT WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DOMINANT STATUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
NEARLY ALL TERMINALS. RESIDUAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
IN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA AND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS SATURDAY. THESE STORMS MAY TEMPORARILY
CREATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR KDAN AND MAYBE KLYH BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS IS LOW. KBLF MAY BE IFR
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE ARGUES FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT ARE
LIKELY TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MID-NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
SET TO ARRIVE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...CG
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