862
FXUS61 KRNK 270642
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
242 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING, BUT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL, AND SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK AND COULD
SEE AREAS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW AREAS
OF FROST LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATE TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA.
2) TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC KEEPS THE WEATHER DRY AND QUIET
FOR THE RNK CWA FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW WILL BRING WARM,
MOIST AIR UP INTO OUR AREA. DIURNAL HEATING, ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THOUGH SOME MODELS
SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST, WITH POPS AROUND 30%, DECREASING
TO 10% FOR THE PIEDMONT.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD
FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO
THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME
RAINFALL. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN LIGHT, WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOWING AROUND 0.10" ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, INCREASING TO NEAR
0.25" FOR THE WESTERNMOST LOCATIONS. PIEDMONT AREAS LIKELY ONLY SEE
A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY, CAUSING HIGHS TO
SOAR INTO THE 70S/80S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S/50S TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MILDER WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IN THE 50S/60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
3) QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LOW
THEN BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY, AS OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RAIN BEGINS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA, LEADING TO A QUIET AND DRY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, DUE TO A CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S/80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. NEXT WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S/70S, AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
WELL AND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MID-NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
SET TO ARRIVE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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