031
FXUS61 KRNK 271859
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST ON LATE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING A RETURN OF DRIER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
1) CLEAR AND CALM SKIES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND OVER THE OCEAN MONDAY (TOMORROW). WINDS WILL BE
QUIET AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH GOES TO OUR EAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
DIFFERENT FROM TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S REGION WIDE. MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID- 40S. CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 25-35% RANGE.
ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS 850MB WINDS MONDAY MORNING MAY BRING
SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ELEVATION TOPS BEING MUCH WARMER THAN THEIR NEIGHBOR VALLEYS AS
THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR NIGHT SKY WILL SUPPORT RADIATIVE
COOLING. DUE TO SOME OF THE LOW MORNING TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FROST IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING NEVERTHELESS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
2) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORKWEEK THAT WILL PROVIDE
THE FUEL FOR DAYTIME HEATING-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY DURING LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, GIVEN INCREASED MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THAT STATED, THERE WILL BE MORE
AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL COMPARED TO THOSE THAT DO.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ON WEDNESDAY,
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANY COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT DO NOT SEE ANY ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 235 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, THOUGH AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNIMPRESSIVE, CURRENTLY AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.50" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
A MODEST COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL CAUSE SEVERAL CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL
WINDS WILL START NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS SO LONG AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE VICINITY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS SET TO APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC MID-NEXT WEEK BUT MAY STALL
JUST BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION AND ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST FOR A LITTLE LONGER.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...CG
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