581
FXUS61 KRNK 272200
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
600 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY
WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE, BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 600 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
2) AFTER A COOL MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER SOUTH OF ROUTE 460 OVERNIGHT, BUT
IT SHOULD STAY CLEAR TO THE NORTH. CALM WINS IN THE VALLEYS
SHOULD ALLOW DECOUPLING AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT
THERE COULD BE MIXING ALOFT THAT KEEPS THE RIDGETOPS WARMER.
SMALL POCKETS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS
SUCH AS BURKES GARDEN, THE GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE FROST COVERAGE IS TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
BREEZE THAT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S
TO THE MID 70S. CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TOWARDS THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
2) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORKWEEK THAT WILL PROVIDE
THE FUEL FOR DAYTIME HEATING-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY DURING LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, GIVEN INCREASED MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THAT STATED, THERE WILL BE MORE
AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL COMPARED TO THOSE THAT DO.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ON WEDNESDAY,
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANY COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT DO NOT SEE ANY ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 235 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, THOUGH AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNIMPRESSIVE, CURRENTLY AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.50" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
A MODEST COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 600 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN CALM OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD TURN TOWARDS A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BREEZE BY MONDAY. THE FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
LATER IN THE DAY. ONLY A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT SKIES SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR. A SCATTERED LAYER
OF CLOUDS MIGHT REACH BLF LATER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
NOT POSE ANY REAL CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE FLOW SHOULD SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS
STAY VFR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
TUESDAY EVENING BUT MAY STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SITUATION SHOULD BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY, AND A NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CG/PW
NEAR TERM...CG/PW
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PW
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