483
FXUS61 KRNK 281044
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
ARRIVE, BUT A FRONT SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR
SHOULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
-DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHILLY START TO THE MORNING WITH AREAS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 40S
AND POSSIBLE UPPER 30S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN MIXED,
THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE
THAT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS
TOWARDS THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.
NOT NEARLY AS CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EACH DAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND
STALLS TO OUR NORTH.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOST OF TUESDAY DRY
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, WHEN A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGING IN WARM, MOIST
AIR. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA,
WITH ANY CONVECTION BEING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RATHER THAN SURFACE
FORCING. DUE TO THIS, RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TUESDAY, WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY, AROUND 20-30%. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY BUT
STALLS TO THE NORTH, DRAPING FROM NEW YORK CITY BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR CINCINNATI. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, BUT PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-81.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIDWEEK, AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS MOVEMENT WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONT
FURTHER NORTH, INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE RNK CWA. POP
CHANCES REMAIN MODEST, GENERALLY AROUND 30-50%, AS WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FORCING, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PIEDMONT. QPF TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH THE NBM SHOWING AROUND 0.25"
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE PIEDMONT LOCATIONS STAY AROUND
0.10".
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
HIGHS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S/80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
50S/60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
2) QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO HAVING
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE, WITH THE
PIEDMONT SEEING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS REMAINING MILD, NEAR 60 DEGREES.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S, AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE FLOW SHOULD SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS
STAY VFR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
TUESDAY EVENING BUT MAY STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SITUATION SHOULD BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY, AND A NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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