556
FXUS61 KRNK 290109
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SE WEST VIRGINIA LATE
TUESDAY EVENING, THEN WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK; HOWEVER, ACCUMULATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW AS ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED IN NATURE. LATE SATURDAY MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA
AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 905 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW.
2) APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
NOTHING NOTHING BUT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER 6PM TUESDAY
EVENING. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PROBABILITY OF THE STORMS FOR
THESE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE INTO SE
WEST VIRGINIA LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, AS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT AS
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE
EVENING (AROUND SUNSET OR LATER) THEN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH LESS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF STORMS
BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA. OUTSIDE OF SE WEST VIRGINIA, THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOK TO
ALSO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM WEEK AHEAD
2) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
IT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY WARM WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THIS WOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT DOES
NOT PASS THROUGH DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS THAT BLOCKS IT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO THE
WV/VA BORDER BUT THEN STALL BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
EVEN SO, A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AND BRING THE REGION A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN REGION WIDE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, A FEW
HUNDRED CAPE, AND MODEST LAPSE RATES. BECAUSE THE NEAREST JET IS
TOO FAR NORTH, WIND SHEAR IS STILL TOO WEAK FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THE REGION COULD GET UP TO 0.1" OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AREAS WITH
0.25" OF RAIN.
OTHERWISE, WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL A PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORMS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
SURFACE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
RESULT AND BE RELATIVELY STRONGER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
2) PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND TO BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF REGIONAL PRECIPITATION. CAPE AND MOIST AIR WILL ALREADY BE
PRESENT, BUT THIS TIME A 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIP
SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME STRONG BULK WIND SHEAR OF
50-60 KTS. WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION
CURRENTLY LOOKS POSSIBLE, THE CURRENT STORM PASSAGE MAY BE
NOCTURNAL WHICH WOULD PUT A CAP ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY TO PROVIDE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BUT DEW POINTS WILL NOTABLY TANK TO THE MID-30S TO LOWER
40S. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 855 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
LIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY PREVAILING FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE MIXING START IN THE MORNING, BY AROUND 14Z/10AM.
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KLWB AND KBLF UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z END
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY
EVENING STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RETURNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS/EB
NEAR TERM...AMS/EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AMS/EB
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