472
FXUS61 KRNK 290623
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
223 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING,
THEN WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK; HOWEVER, ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE. LATE
SATURDAY MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA AND THIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING.
2) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FROM AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE LATE
THIS EVENING AND WILL ARRIVE IN A WEAKENED STATE DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAIN OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. AREAS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM WEEK AHEAD
2) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
IT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY WARM WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THIS WOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT DOES
NOT PASS THROUGH DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS THAT BLOCKS IT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO THE
WV/VA BORDER BUT THEN STALL BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
EVEN SO, A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AND BRING THE REGION A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN REGION WIDE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, A FEW
HUNDRED CAPE, AND MODEST LAPSE RATES. BECAUSE THE NEAREST JET IS
TOO FAR NORTH, WIND SHEAR IS STILL TOO WEAK FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THE REGION COULD GET UP TO 0.1" OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AREAS WITH
0.25" OF RAIN.
OTHERWISE, WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL A PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORMS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
SURFACE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
RESULT AND BE RELATIVELY STRONGER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
2) PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND TO BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF REGIONAL PRECIPITATION. CAPE AND MOIST AIR WILL ALREADY BE
PRESENT, BUT THIS TIME A 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIP
SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME STRONG BULK WIND SHEAR OF
50-60 KTS. WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION
CURRENTLY LOOKS POSSIBLE, THE CURRENT STORM PASSAGE MAY BE
NOCTURNAL WHICH WOULD PUT A CAP ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY TO PROVIDE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BUT DEW POINTS WILL NOTABLY TANK TO THE MID-30S TO LOWER
40S. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 220 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
MIXING STARTS BY LATE MORNING, BY AROUND 14Z/10AM. WIND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KLWB AND KBLF UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z.
ADDED VCTS FOR BLF/LWB AFTER 00Z/8PM, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND STALLS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RETURNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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