873
FXUS61 KRNK 291027
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
627 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING,
THEN WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK; HOWEVER, ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE. LATE
SATURDAY MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA AND THIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING.
2) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FROM AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE LATE
THIS EVENING AND WILL ARRIVE IN A WEAKENED STATE DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAIN OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. AREAS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE EACH DAY.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE IN NORTHERN VIRGINA IN AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION ON WEDNESDAY. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH RISING DEWPOINTS ALLOWING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH KEEPS INSTABILITY LIMITED. AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH
POPS OF AT LEAST 30% ARE AREA-WIDE AS SOME STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS, WITH ANY CONVECTION DYING
OFF OVERNIGHT. THE SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD. POPS REMAIN
HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
THE PIEDMONT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME, THOUGH A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE
RAIN WILL BE, BUT ONCE AGAIN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN, WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PIEDMONT.
QPF TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY, WITH THE
NBM SHOWING PIEDMONT AREAS ACCUMULATING BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" OF RAIN,
WITH GENERALLY 0.25-0.50" WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S EACH DAY, AND LOWS IN
THE 50S/60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
2) NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WHICH IS A CHANGE
FROM YESTERDAY, AS MODELS NOW INDICATE THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOT
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
LOW FORMING IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE RNK CWA. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DOMINATES THE
WEATHER PATTERN.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT FALL INTO THE 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY MORNING
MAY SEE LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 620 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
MIXING STARTS BY LATE MORNING, BY AROUND 14Z/10AM. WIND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KLWB AND KBLF UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z.
ADDED VCTS FOR BLF/LWB AFTER 00Z/8PM, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND STALLS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RETURNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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