693
FXUS61 KRNK 291841
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES; HOWEVER, ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO REMAIN LOW AS ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE. LATE SATURDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, AND THIS WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY IN AN
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
STATE LINES. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IN THE MORE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THESE STORMS, IS THAT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
THAT EXTREMELY SUBTLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A MINIMAL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FORTUNATELY, WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP; HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAY SEE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH PWATS IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE;
HOWEVER, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL UNDER DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MID 80S FORECAST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AND UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF HIGHER PEAKS WHERE LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE LINGERING FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO
THE REGION. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN U.S. AROUND OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND MORE CAPE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES AS
WELL AS THE ECMWF SHIFT OF TAILS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO FROM OUR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND WN NC INTO THE PIEDMONT, WHERE THE CHANCE
FOR DEW POINTS ABOVE 65F IS GREATEST. THAT SAID, THE BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR WEST,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT AND BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRECEDING THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE, AS PER
THE SREF AND GEFS SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY, THEN DRY SUNDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES COOL FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN BEGIN TO TREND UP FOR
NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY, AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE AND SLOW MOVING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO STALL JUST TO OUR WEST
AS BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPIES THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DESPITE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL PROBABLY KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA AROUND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS; HOWEVER, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA OF BLF AND LWB BETWEEN THE 00-04 UTC TIMEFRAME. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS
TO BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS. AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST, THEY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE ENTERING OTHER TERMINALS AIRSPACE. CLOUD
DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENOUGH CAM
SUPPORT THAT IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO
DEVELOP AT BLF AND LWB BETWEEN 09-12 UTC TIMEFRAME. THESE
RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO LIFT BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING TODAY WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RETURNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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