882
FXUS61 KRNK 300107
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
907 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, TO AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH INCREASED ODDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 907 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RADARS TO OUR WEST SHOW A (REORGANIZING?) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ENCROACHING UPON THE
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST CAMS
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT -- STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BETWEEN 11 P.M. AND MIDNIGHT (GIVE-OR-
TAKE AN HOUR).
ENVIRONMENTALLY, THE AIRMASS OVER OUR CORNER OF THE WORLD ISN'T
QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION AS IT CURRENTLY IS
FARTHER WEST. OUR SOUNDING REMAINS DRY, AND SINCE THE SUN HAS
SET, VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTION'S STRENGTH. AS SUCH, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL, THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE, WITH ONLY
MINIMAL TWEAKS MADE HERE AND THERE.
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY IN AN
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
STATE LINES. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IN THE MORE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THESE STORMS, IS THAT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
THAT EXTREMELY SUBTLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A MINIMAL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FORTUNATELY, WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP; HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAY SEE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH PWATS IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE;
HOWEVER, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL UNDER DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MID 80S FORECAST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AND UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF HIGHER PEAKS WHERE LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE LINGERING FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO
THE REGION. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN U.S. AROUND OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND MORE CAPE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES AS
WELL AS THE ECMWF SHIFT OF TAILS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO FROM OUR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND WN NC INTO THE PIEDMONT, WHERE THE CHANCE
FOR DEW POINTS ABOVE 65F IS GREATEST. THAT SAID, THE BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR WEST,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT AND BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRECEDING THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE, AS PER
THE SREF AND GEFS SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY, THEN DRY SUNDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES COOL FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN BEGIN TO TREND UP FOR
NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY, AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE AND SLOW MOVING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO STALL JUST TO OUR WEST
AS BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPIES THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DESPITE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL PROBABLY KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA AROUND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 907 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 30/2400 UTC, WITH CIGS AOA 120 THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT TERMINALS W OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE ISOLD -SHRA COULD BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
WV. THE TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL EXPECTED
30/0300-0400 UTC TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACROSS SE WV, AND THE ODDS OF ANY ONE TERMINAL
RECEIVING SHRA IS VERY LOW. STILL, I HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR
KBLF AND KLWB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS SE WV
AIRPORTS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST >50% ODDS
CIGS WILL FALL INTO MVFR TERRITORY. I'VE ADJUSTING THE TIMING ON
WHEN I THINK THIS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FORECAST. GUSTY S-SW
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT LATER THIS EVENING, WITH SW-W WIND
SPEEDS MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IVOF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DB/EB
NEAR TERM...DB/EB
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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