951
FXUS61 KRNK 300641
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, TO AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH INCREASED ODDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING,
LEAVING BEHIND JUST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED, NORTH OF I-64 IN VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A FACTOR, THEREFORE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT OTHER THAN THE STALLED BOUNDARY, BUT
WITH PLENTY OF HEATING AND A MODERATELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE AND POSE A
THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD SEE CONVECTION WANE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN, AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN TODAY COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE LINGERING FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO
THE REGION. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN U.S. AROUND OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND MORE CAPE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES AS
WELL AS THE ECMWF SHIFT OF TAILS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO FROM OUR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND WN NC INTO THE PIEDMONT, WHERE THE CHANCE
FOR DEW POINTS ABOVE 65F IS GREATEST. THAT SAID, THE BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR WEST,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT AND BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRECEDING THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE, AS PER
THE SREF AND GEFS SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY, THEN DRY SUNDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES COOL FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN BEGIN TO TREND UP FOR
NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY, AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE AND SLOW MOVING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO STALL JUST TO OUR WEST
AS BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPIES THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DESPITE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL PROBABLY KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA AROUND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW TERMINALS
FLIRTING WITH MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT LIKELY TO SEE CU DEVELOP AGAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
TO ADD ANY VCTS INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN
MIXED WITH GUSTS 15KTS POSSIBLE, BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAIN
LIGHT/CALM. AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, WILL SEE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 15KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID 24 HR TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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