157
FXUS61 KRNK 300729
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, TO AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH INCREASED ODDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING,
LEAVING BEHIND JUST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED, NORTH OF I-64 IN VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A FACTOR, THEREFORE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT OTHER THAN THE STALLED BOUNDARY, BUT
WITH PLENTY OF HEATING AND A MODERATELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE AND POSE A
THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD SEE CONVECTION WANE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN, AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN TODAY COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES PERSIST EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK, RETURNING TO NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE RNK CWA, AND COMBINED WITH THE AID OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY
WILL SEE SIMILAR WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON HOW THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE RNK CWA. THE GFS HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE FRONT CLEARING THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF
AND OTHER MODELS HAVE SHIFTED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND NOW SHOW A
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC HANGING AROUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE OUTLIER, WITH IT SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA.
POPS ARE KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT LOWER TO
AROUND 40% ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. QPF TOTALS FOR THE
PERIOD ARE JUST UNDER 0.50" FOR THE PIEDMONT, WITH 0.50-0.80"+ WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S. SATURDAY WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER, LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT, IN THE 50S/60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS MODELS SHOW WIDELY RANGING CONDITIONS.
THE UNCERTAIN FORECAST CONTINUES, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE VARYING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
KEEPING THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS
IS A DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, MODELS BEGAN TO
SHOW THIS TREND YESTERDAY, SAVE THE GFS, WHICH REMAINS BULLISH ON
CLEARING THE AREA OUT. THIS CONSISTENT TREND INCREASES CONFIDENCE
THAT A CUTOFF LOW IS WHAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE,
SHOWERS ARE KEPT IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY, BUT POPS ARE KEPT MODEST,
AROUND 30-40% THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING.
TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL WIDELY VARY BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
FOR NOW, TEMPERATURES ARE KEPT NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S/70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW TERMINALS
FLIRTING WITH MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT LIKELY TO SEE CU DEVELOP AGAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
TO ADD ANY VCTS INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN
MIXED WITH GUSTS 15KTS POSSIBLE, BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAIN
LIGHT/CALM. AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, WILL SEE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 15KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID 24 HR TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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