672
FXUS61 KRNK 301735
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT STALLS ACROSS INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT TRACKS
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.
SHOWERS STARTING TO GEL OVER FAR SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A POOL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO 1500-2000 OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE TN VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE FOCUSING BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR IN
SOUTHWEST VA SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, WITH MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE, IF ANY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS FADE
TOWARD LATE EVENING.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIGHT IN THE AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS, WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THIS.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD/WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID
50S WEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY, THE FRONT TRACKS NORTH WHILE SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE STILL INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED TO DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY WEST/NORTHWEST OF I-81, WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT/SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED. LESS TO LITTLE COVERAGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE VA. WITH INCREASING SHEAR, NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A FEW STORMS ACROSS WV/FAR SW VA TO BRING A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
MORNING CLOUDS MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP. ANOTHER WARM DAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID
80S EAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES PERSIST EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK, RETURNING TO NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A BERMUDA
HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE RNK CWA, AND COMBINED WITH THE AID OF AN UPPER- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY .
THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON HOW THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE RNK CWA. THE GFS HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE FRONT CLEARING THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF
AND OTHER MODELS HAVE SHIFTED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND NOW SHOW A
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC HANGING AROUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE OUTLIER, WITH IT SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA.
POPS ARE KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT LOWER TO
AROUND 40% ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. QPF TOTALS FOR THE
PERIOD ARE JUST UNDER 0.50" FOR THE PIEDMONT, WITH 0.50-0.80"+ WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S. SATURDAY WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER, LEADING TO HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT, IN THE 50S/60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS MODELS SHOW WIDELY RANGING CONDITIONS.
THE UNCERTAIN FORECAST CONTINUES, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE VARYING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
KEEPING THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS
IS A DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, MODELS BEGAN TO
SHOW THIS TREND YESTERDAY, SAVE THE GFS, WHICH REMAINS BULLISH ON
CLEARING THE AREA OUT. THIS CONSISTENT TREND INCREASES CONFIDENCE
THAT A CUTOFF LOW IS WHAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE,
SHOWERS ARE KEPT IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY, BUT POPS ARE KEPT MODEST,
AROUND 30-40% THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING.
TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL WIDELY VARY BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
FOR NOW, TEMPERATURES ARE KEPT NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S/70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED CUMULUS, AT TIMES BROKEN WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE 3-8KFT RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MAINLY BE
LOCATED ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-BCB-DAN LINE, WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION TOWARD TRI OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO NC. FOR NOW
SEEMS COVERAGE TO LIMITED TO HAVE IN THE TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THIS HAPPENING, BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP
MOST SITES VFR TO NOW LOWER THAN MVFR.
ANY FOG/LOW CLOUD SHOULD LIFT BY 12-15Z TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN
CU/ALTOCU DECK. ANY SHOWERS/TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 18Z
FOR MOST.
CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR VFR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON LATE TONIGHT SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS SHOWERY BUT DIFFERENCE IN MODELS MAKE FOR
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR VFR VS SUB-VFR WEATHER.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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