774
FXUS61 KRNK 301745
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
145 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT STALLS ACROSS INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT TRACKS
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.
SHOWERS STARTING TO GEL OVER FAR SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A POOL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO 1500-2000 OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE TN VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE FOCUSING BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR IN
SOUTHWEST VA SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, WITH MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE, IF ANY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS FADE
TOWARD LATE EVENING.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIGHT IN THE AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS, WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THIS.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD/WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID
50S WEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY, THE FRONT TRACKS NORTH WHILE SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE STILL INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED TO DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY WEST/NORTHWEST OF I-81, WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT/SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED. LESS TO LITTLE COVERAGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE VA. WITH INCREASING SHEAR, NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A FEW STORMS ACROSS WV/FAR SW VA TO BRING A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
MORNING CLOUDS MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP. ANOTHER WARM DAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID
80S EAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) UNCERTAINTY IF CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT OR TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES SUNDAY.
JUST AS A BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE ADVECTS ANOTHER FRONT IN FROM THE WEST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVE
FEATURES AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELDS TO IMPACT THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT SW FLOW GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ENOUGH PROGGED
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL WITH WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A BIT GREATER SBCAPE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY VERSUS
SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHAT TRANSPIRES IN
THE UPPER WAVE ENERGY AS THE TROUGH EITHER CUTS OFF WEST OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN PROLONGED SW FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS OR NW
FLOW USHERS IN A RIDGE OF DRY CONDITIONS. THIS OUTCOME WOULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMS FOR FRIDAY THEN POTENTIALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY TEMPS SHOULD VARY BASED ON WHAT THE
UPPER TROUGH DOES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON FORECAST BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS THERE ARE SEVERAL FAIRLY
HIGH PERCENTAGES OF MODEL RUNS THAT CLUSTER INTO TWO MAIN OUTCOMES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE BEING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN
CONUS THAT WOULD KEEP THE AREA UNDER SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE EXTRA FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH ANY VORT LOBES TRAVERSING THE
EASTERN LOW. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER OUTCOME COULD BE
DECENT RIDGING THAT ADVECTS A DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST GIVING US
A MOMENTARY BREAK TO THE ACTIVELY WET PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AND KEEP MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS.
TEMPS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIOUS
AIRMASSES BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH BLEND UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE IS
REACHED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED CUMULUS, AT TIMES BROKEN WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE 3-8KFT RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MAINLY BE
LOCATED ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-BCB-DAN LINE, WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION TOWARD TRI OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO NC. FOR NOW
SEEMS COVERAGE TO LIMITED TO HAVE IN THE TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THIS HAPPENING, BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP
MOST SITES VFR TO NOW LOWER THAN MVFR.
ANY FOG/LOW CLOUD SHOULD LIFT BY 12-15Z TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN
CU/ALTOCU DECK. ANY SHOWERS/TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 18Z
FOR MOST.
CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR VFR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON LATE TONIGHT SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS SHOWERY BUT DIFFERENCE IN MODELS MAKE FOR
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR VFR VS SUB-VFR WEATHER.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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