683
FXUS61 KRNK 010637
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR REGION WILL
ALSO PUSH NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S.
BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. STORMS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING, LEAVING
RESIDUAL RAINSHOWERS THROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS TODAY WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) UNCERTAINTY IF CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT OR TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES SUNDAY.
JUST AS A BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE ADVECTS ANOTHER FRONT IN FROM THE WEST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVE
FEATURES AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELDS TO IMPACT THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT SW FLOW GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ENOUGH PROGGED
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL WITH WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A BIT GREATER SBCAPE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY VERSUS
SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHAT TRANSPIRES IN
THE UPPER WAVE ENERGY AS THE TROUGH EITHER CUTS OFF WEST OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN PROLONGED SW FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS OR NW
FLOW USHERS IN A RIDGE OF DRY CONDITIONS. THIS OUTCOME WOULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMS FOR FRIDAY THEN POTENTIALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY TEMPS SHOULD VARY BASED ON WHAT THE
UPPER TROUGH DOES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON FORECAST BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS THERE ARE SEVERAL FAIRLY
HIGH PERCENTAGES OF MODEL RUNS THAT CLUSTER INTO TWO MAIN OUTCOMES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE BEING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN
CONUS THAT WOULD KEEP THE AREA UNDER SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE EXTRA FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH ANY VORT LOBES TRAVERSING THE
EASTERN LOW. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER OUTCOME COULD BE
DECENT RIDGING THAT ADVECTS A DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST GIVING US
A MOMENTARY BREAK TO THE ACTIVELY WET PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AND KEEP MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS.
TEMPS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIOUS
AIRMASSES BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH BLEND UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE IS
REACHED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MIXED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR. AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
EARLIER TODAY. THIS IS GENERALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, NW NC AND STRETCHING INTO THE FOOTHILLS. VSBY
WILL RANGE FROM 1SM TO 4SM THROUGH DAYBREAK.
FOG LIFTS AROUND 12Z/8AM AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
VFR. AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY
BLF/LWB. LESS CONFIDENCE OF STORMS FROM ROA AND EAST.
SCATTERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN AREAS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS SHOWERY BUT DIFFERENCE IN MODELS MAKE FOR
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR VFR VS SUB-VFR WEATHER.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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