742
FXUS61 KRNK 011725
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
2) ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS ATYPICAL
MORNING SURFACE TO 925 MB INVERSION, WHICH SHOULD BE OVERCOME
WITH HEATING BY 15Z/11AM. LOOKING AT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. WV SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE RISING DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD FUEL SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BEST TIMING IN THE 2PM-8PM TIME FRAME, MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT POPS HIGHEST 50-60% IN WV AND FAR
SOUTHWEST VA WHERE THE BETTER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AS
FOR SEVERE THREAT, LOOKS ISOLATED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG/SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG/WEST OF I-77 IN
WV/SW VA THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST FORCING IS LIMITED SO
ASIDE FROM SOME STORMS THAT MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR REGION WILL
ALSO PUSH NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S.
BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. STORMS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING, LEAVING
RESIDUAL SHOWERS THROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS TODAY WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SATURDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
THOUGH RAIN IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA, AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT ON FRIDAY,
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING LEVELS OF INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THERE BEING
WARM, MOIST AIR ALONG WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE FRONT NEARING
THE AREA, SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT CLEARS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES DO NOT
GO AWAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE LOW TO HANG AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE NOW COME
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POPS OF AROUND 50% FOR
SUNDAY. QPF TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.50-
1.00" FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, THOUGH MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW OVER AN
INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE RNK CWA.
FRIDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S,
AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
COOLER DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LOW REMAINING IN THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S THOUGH A FEW 80S WILL REMAIN IN THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) CLOUDIER SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CRITICAL IN HOW MUCH
RAINFALL OCCURS IN OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. IF THE LOW STALLS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY TO OUR WEST, A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MORE
RAINFALL IN THE AREA. IF THE LOW STALLS MORE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC,
THEN LESS RAINFALL WILL BE EXPECTED, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP CLOUDY,
COOL, AND DAMP CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT AROUND 30-40%, UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE CUTOFF LOW. THE LOW REMAINS IN THE AREA UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY BLF/LWB. LESS
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS FROM ROA AND EAST. SHOULD STAY VFR OUTSIDE
ANY STORMS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL ONLY HAVE VCTS
AT BLF/LWB FOR NOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
15-23KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED/BROKEN VFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN AREAS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT VFR FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY EVENING
OUTSIDE ANY STORMS. FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY WITH BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR. SHOWERS LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH
SUB-VFR AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. MAY NOT
SEE VFR TIL TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...BMG/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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