983
FXUS61 KRNK 011823
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
223 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE OVER THE WV/FAR
SW VA MOUNTAINS.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AREA-WIDE BUT NOT EVERYONE GETS
RAIN.
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND MORESO WEST OF I-77. THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIES
WEST BUT OUR AREA HAS SBCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, THOUGH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FURTHER EAST MAY STOP DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PIEDMONT. OVERALL LOOK FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, HIGHEST TOWARD BRISTOL AND BLUEFIELD. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
STRONGER STORM. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING LOSS DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING STORMS BACK TO SHOWERS, AND MODELS KEEP A GOOD COVERAGE
WEST OF I-77 INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE POOLING IN
THE WARM SECTOR.
LOWS WILL RUN 10-16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S,
FEELING MORE LIKE JUNE.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BACKS SOME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAKER, THOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED BUOYANCY WILL O
OVERCOME THAT TO BRING STORM COVERAGE AREAWIDE, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
MORE CLOUDS/COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE MAY KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WARM IN THE 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN TOMORROW BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD GET A
HALF INCH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW DOMINATES FORECAST PERIOD
2) MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS SET TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THIS
WEEKEND BUT THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT AND ITS FUTURE PATH BECOMES
FUZZY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A
500MB TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD AND SPLITS FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY
FLOW AND ROAMS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BECAUSE OF ITS
LOCATION, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MAY TRAVEL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TO BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REGION WIDE. GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN A FEW HUNDRED
CAPE, LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM, AND MOIST DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH WILL RAISE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINTY ON THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS, THE WEEKEND OFFERS A GREAT
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AREA TO RECEIVE A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.
CURRENTLY, RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH WITH
LOCAL AREAS SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN. WHILE THE RAIN IS
NECESSARY TO HELP OUR DRY CONDITIONS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE MILD/WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS ALSO MAY BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IF ANY SURFACE LOWS CAUGHT BY THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) MORE CHANCES OF RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING,
THE UPPER CUT-OFF LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD IS DUBIOUS AS THERE APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CONUS WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IN BETWEEN THESE LOWS LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES (20-40%) OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL DUE TO SOME 500MB VORTICITY PASSING THROUGH. DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER IN THE 40S AND 50S AND SHEAR WILL BE ABSENT
SO IT IS LIKELY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST. LASTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY
TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOWS WILL START IN THE 40S
AND 50S AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY BLF/LWB. LESS
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS FROM ROA AND EAST. SHOULD STAY VFR OUTSIDE
ANY STORMS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL ONLY HAVE VCTS
AT BLF/LWB FOR NOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
15-23KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED/BROKEN VFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN AREAS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT VFR FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY EVENING
OUTSIDE ANY STORMS. FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY WITH BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR. SHOWERS LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH
SUB-VFR AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. MAY NOT
SEE VFR TIL TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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