929
FXUS61 KRNK 020812
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 640 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS/FEW STORMS THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AREA-WIDE BUT NOT EVERYONE GETS
RAIN.
HAD A FEW STRONG STORMS EARLIER AROUND 4-5PM, BUT SINCE THE
ACTIVITY AS WANED. STILL SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
UPPER TN VALLEY COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHERE
IT RAINED, IF IT CLEARS ENOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND MORESO WEST OF I-77. THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIES
WEST BUT OUR AREA HAS SBCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, THOUGH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FURTHER EAST MAY STOP DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PIEDMONT. OVERALL LOOK FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, HIGHEST TOWARD BRISTOL AND BLUEFIELD. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
STRONGER STORM. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING LOSS DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING STORMS BACK TO SHOWERS, AND MODELS KEEP A GOOD COVERAGE
WEST OF I-77 INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE POOLING IN
THE WARM SECTOR.
LOWS WILL RUN 10-16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S,
FEELING MORE LIKE JUNE.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BACKS SOME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAKER, THOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED BUOYANCY WILL O
OVERCOME THAT TO BRING STORM COVERAGE AREAWIDE, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
MORE CLOUDS/COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE MAY KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WARM IN THE 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN TOMORROW BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD GET A
HALF INCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
2) DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY, THOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN.
LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND, THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL COME INCREASINGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL STALL AND MEANDER ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENSE OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EMBEDDED
WITHIN.
WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE DURING
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG
WAVE OF ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GIVEN
THIS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING, CAN SEE A
FEW STORMS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT RESIDUAL WARMTH AND INTENSIFY
TO SEVERE LEVELS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME, BECOMING CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HIGHLIGHTED
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY,
WHICH IS COMMON FOR STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. BANDS OF RAIN CAN BECOME STALLED, LEADING TO ROUNDS OF
RAIN WITHIN THE BANDS PASSING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. THIS CAN BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WHERE THE MOIST AIR BEING FORCED UP THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE PIEDMONT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4) RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STRONG SIGNAL WHERE HEAVY RAIN MAY
DEVELOP. BUT THIS IS A FEATURE THAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR
ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPING FLOODING.
DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING IN A OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL
DEVELOP GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL RESUME ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO SET IN
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD
WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY FOR MOST, WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK INDUCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND HOW
IT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SEEMS REASONABLE AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, A DIRECTION
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS CLOSE TO BCB/ROA/LWB/BLF THIS EVENING BUT
MAINTAINING VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST, THOUGH SOME SUB-VFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT BLF.
SCATTERED/BROKEN VFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN AREAS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z BUT WILL
BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT VFR FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY EVENING OUTSIDE ANY STORMS.
FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY WITH BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
SUB-VFR. SHOWERS LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR AS THE FRONT
SLOWS AND UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. MAY NOT SEE VFR TIL TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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