387
FXUS61 KRNK 021106
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENDING THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 420 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS CROSSING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THIS FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 4AM. HI-RES MODELS LIFT THIS WAVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THEN DECREASED BEFORE
8AM.
NO OTHER ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
BUT ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THIS MORNING, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AND ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH THE LACK OF OTHER FORCING, THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH
OF ROANOKE WITH THE STORMS THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST IN DEEP,
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND.
AFTER SUNSET, ANOTHER LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.
WHILE THE AREA WILL BE BE COMPLETELY FREE OF PRECIPITATION, THE
PROBABILITY AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER. AFTER MIDNIGHT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE WEST.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE HUMID AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LOWS ESPECIALLY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO
15 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOES NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. EAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
2) DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY, THOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN.
LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND, THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL COME INCREASINGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL STALL AND MEANDER ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EMBEDDED
WITHIN.
WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE DURING
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG
WAVE OF ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GIVEN
THIS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING, CAN SEE A
FEW STORMS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT RESIDUAL WARMTH AND INTENSIFY
TO SEVERE LEVELS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME, BECOMING CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HIGHLIGHTED
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY,
WHICH IS COMMON FOR STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. BANDS OF RAIN CAN BECOME STALLED, LEADING TO ROUNDS OF
RAIN WITHIN THE BANDS PASSING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. THIS CAN BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WHERE THE MOIST AIR BEING FORCED UP THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE PIEDMONT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4) RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STRONG SIGNAL WHERE HEAVY RAIN MAY
DEVELOP. BUT THIS IS A FEATURE THAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR
ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPING FLOODING.
DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING IN A OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL
DEVELOP GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL RESUME ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO SET IN
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD
WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY FOR MOST, WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK INDUCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND HOW
IT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SEEMS REASONABLE AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, A DIRECTION
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 450 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS CROSSING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WELL DEFINED
SHORT WAVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THIS FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 4AM. HI-RES MODELS LIFT THIS WAVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THEN DECREASED
BEFORE 8AM. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VFR WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT VISIBILITY DROPS TO MVFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN.
NO OTHER ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
BUT ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THIS MORNING, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AND ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE WITH THE STORMS THEN TRACKING
NORTHEAST IN DEEP, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE ONLY ADDED
VCSH IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND KBLF, BUT KBCB, KROA, AND KDAN.
TIMING WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 16Z/NOON THROUGH 00Z/8PM. ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40
KTS.
AFTER SUNSET, ANOTHER LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.
WHILE THE AREA WILL BE BE COMPLETELY FREE OF PRECIPITATION, THE
PROBABILITY AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER. AFTER MIDNIGHT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY IMPACT KBLF AND KLWB WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CEILING, WIND, AND VISIBILITY.
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THERE
IS A POTENTIAL TO HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SUB-MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
A FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE
A LINGERING SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL VFR WITH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page