856
FXUS61 KRNK 262117
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
517 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM TEXAS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT EDGES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN TO OUR AREA. THE
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES.
2) RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
COOL WEDGE STICKS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING MAIN
CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE NC AREA, INTO SOUTHERN VA,
WHILE SOME CLEARING TRIES TO MAKE INTO THE SHENANDOAH/GREENBRIER
VALLEYS, EAST OVER TOWARD LYNCHBURG/BUCKINGHAM. ANY IMPROVEMENT
EARLY TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE COURSE LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE BEST LIFT ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT LEANING TOWARD HREF HAS RAIN MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY RANGING MAINLY FROM A THIRD TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH. NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME, AND
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED DUE TO STABLE WEDGE. MAY SEE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CLOSE TO OUR FAR SW VA COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE, AND POTENTIAL CLEARING AND/OR LIGHT
RAIN/WET GROUND, FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, BUT
WITH MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP IT LIMITED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
5-10 DEGREES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND
INCREASING TO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOWER
50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. VERY GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
2. LESSER CHANCES OF SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY.
3. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.
A LOOK AT THE 26 MAY 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS A TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, TRAILING SOUTHWEST TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY, AND OTHER TROUGH WILL BE OVER MT/ID. ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE CLOSER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH OVER MT/ID MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT EAST, BUT
AMPLIFIES. FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WASHES
OUT IN THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE AVERAGING. WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, ON TUESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NOSING SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LEE SIDE RIDGE AXIS
ERODES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR
REGION. LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH HEADS EAST,
AND WITH IT A COLD FONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES HEADING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES TO
CENTRAL CONUS, AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC, PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY STILL IS LOOKING LIKE THE TIME PERIOD
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THANKS CAN
BE OFFERED TO FIRST THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
PROVIDING FOR A BROAD COVERAGE OF RAIN. WHEN THE COLD FRONT CROSSES,
THE ACTIVITY WILL TURN MORE CONVECTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STORMS IN THE WEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FALLING ON TOP OF
WHAT ALREADY COULD HAVE BEEN A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS POSTED A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED FOR A FEW SPOTS LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING. ON WEDNESDAY, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND LIKEWISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. ON THURSDAY, THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY DRY DAY. THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COVERAGE DECREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DOES NOT REACH ZERO PERCENT AS WE REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON FRIDAY WITH A GENERAL TREND OF DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
A LOOK A THE 26 MAY 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT A CONTINUATION OF NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND A STALLED TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS. FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE IS A SMALL HINT AT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT, THERE IS STILL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY.
FOR MONDAY, THERE IS STILL LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE IN CANADA MAY BE
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
AMPLIFIES, AND BRINGS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE RIDGE-CENTRAL US, TROUGHINESS-EASTERN US PATTERN.
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO SHIFTS
A BIT FARTHER EAST. FOR MONDAY, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO OVER OUR REGION.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. ON FRIDAY,
THE CENTER OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE ZERO,
THEY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH CHANCES
PRIMARILY DURING THE PEAKING HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON, AND MORE
LIKELY THAN NOT, BE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE MOUNTAINS. THANKS ARE IN
PART TO THE QUESTIONABLE TIMING OF QUICK MOVING FEATURES WITHIN
EITHER A ZONAL, OR STILL PERHAPS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
THE REGION, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIME IN
THE WEST. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MONDAY, BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING EVEN A LESSER CHANCE THAN THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE REGARDING THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT ON THE LOW SIDE REGARDING SPECIFIC
TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 515 PM EDT MONDAY...
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME
BREAKS AND VFR CIGS MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS A LWB-ROA-DAN
LINE THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING ACROSS
NORTHERN VA/WV WITH SOLID LAYER OF CLOUDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-64 ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/WV AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ANY CLEARING THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS
INDICATE THAT STRATUS FILLS BACK IN LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING PUSH, AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
ANY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE VA/NC BORDER. VSBYS UNDER 2SM ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF ROA WITH
RIDGE OBSCURATIONS LIKELY FROM BCB/MTV INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NC
TOWARD TNB.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR FOR TUESDAY WITH SUB 1KFT CIGS
AT TIMES AND VSBYS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 2-6SM. RAIN RETURNS
REACHING BLF/BCB BY 10-12Z, AND LYH/ROA/DAN BY 14-17Z. WINDS
STAY EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT THE
SOUTHEAST.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS, EXCEPT AVERAGE ON VFR
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECTING PROLONGED
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN PERIODIC SUB-VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
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