922
FXUS61 KRNK 271437
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY, WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. COOL WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
VERY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT, SOME MODERATE RAIN MOVING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MAINLY A BENEFICIAL
RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS FOR MOST RUNNING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH, WITH
A FEW SPOTS GETTING CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS TO AN INCH.
HAVE SOME CLEARING HEADING TOWARD MARION/TAZEWELL, WITH SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND SOUNDING INDICATING SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOWING FOR
SOME DOWNSLOPING. WILL SEE TEMPS HERE REACH TO NEAR 70 THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OF THE WEDGED IN AREAS STAY IN THE 50S.
RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BREAKS IN THE WEST,
SO POPS/WX UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER POPS FROM THE
GREENBRIER TO NEW RIVER VALLEY TO NC PIEDMONT NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHER POPS 70-100 PERCENT, WITH LESS COVERAGE TOWARD THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO THE NC MTNS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MADE MODEST ADJUSTMENTS IN RAINFALL TOTALS AND TEMPERATURES
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AS RAIN QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BANKED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING A COOL EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE
SAME TIME, APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
STEADY AND NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
TO THE REGION, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THAT STATED, THERE IS VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH
CAROLINA.
THE RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE MAINLY BENEFICIAL AS
THE REGION RECOVERS FROM DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SPRING. RAIN WILL FALL LIGHT AND STEADY FOR MOST, WITH
RAINFALL RATES REMAINING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM
0.5" TO 1" ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 1" TO 1.25" EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE LONG DURATION AND LOW RATES WILL PROVE
BENEFICIAL IN ALLOWING GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MOISTURE TO
BE ABSORBED INTO THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE THROUGH DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED WEATHER PATTERN OF LIGHT RAIN AND OVERCAST
SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RISING ONLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES OVER THOSE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. PLAN FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, PERHAPS APPROACHING 60 EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
29 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 210 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2. STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE FALLS WILL THEN LEAD
TO THE WEDGE ERODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH, CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
LATE IN THE EVENING AS A PASSING TROUGH BRINGS WESTERLY FLOW
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY OPEN INTO A SHARP TROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-MISSISSPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSPPI VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. TRENDING DRIER AND WARMER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN BECOME
WARMER THAN NORMAL STARTING MONDAY.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
RAIN IS GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC FROM WEST
TO EAST. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER IN TURN WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH MOST AIRPORTS REPORTING
CEILINGS IN THE 1.2 TO 0.7KFT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE
AIRPORTS FURTHER EAST REMAIN VFR WHERE RAIN HAS NOT YET OCCURRED.
LIGHT RAIN WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE 27/12Z
TAF PERIOD. WITH COOL WINDFLOW FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, CEILINGS WILL LIFT LITTLE, IF ANY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HOLDING MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY UP AND DOWN DEPENDING ON
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 2SM TO 5SM RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH MODEST DOWNSLOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 15KT TO 20KT RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT PROLONGED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN PERIODIC SUB-VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF
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