072
FXUS61 KRNK 271734
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY, WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. COOL WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
VERY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT, SOME MODERATE RAIN MOVING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MAINLY A BENEFICIAL
RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS FOR MOST RUNNING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH, WITH
A FEW SPOTS GETTING CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS TO AN INCH.
HAVE SOME CLEARING HEADING TOWARD MARION/TAZEWELL, WITH SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND SOUNDING INDICATING SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOWING FOR
SOME DOWNSLOPING. WILL SEE TEMPS HERE REACH TO NEAR 70 THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OF THE WEDGED IN AREAS STAY IN THE 50S.
MODELS VARY ON COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IN
ESSENCE EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR MOST AREAS, WITH ON
OCCASIONAL BURST OF MODERATE RAIN, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT KEEPS THE RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY BUT FORCING WEAKENS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN WAVES TOMORROW AND MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE PEEKING THROUGH
AND WEDGE ERODING, AS SUN ANGLE HIGH ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THIS.
DESTABLIZATION SEEMS LIMITED BUT ENOUGH SUN COMBINED WITH
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WED AFTERNOON.
AFTER A COOL DAY AND NIGHT, WEDNESDAY SHOULD TEMPS COMING CLOSER
TO NORMAL SINCE ANY SUN COULD BOOST TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR OR TWO.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY.
2. MORE STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
3. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, AHEAD OF A
LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BEGIN MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST, INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL SPARK SOME RAIN SHOWERS FIRST
OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NC BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPANDS TO THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN
THE EAST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY, AND SO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE WARM AND MOIST, THOUGH ANY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE COLD FRONT, THINKING
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE GREATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR WEST
TO UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
2. DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
3. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW,
LEADING TO RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA, THOUGH BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ROUND THE MAIN TROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD,
REACHING UP TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE, AND RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES KEEPING CEILINGS AT OR BELOW
1KFT FOR MOST, THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR SEEM POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TOWARD BLF, AND MAY SEE BREAKS TO MVFR BY
18Z WED AS WEDGE STARTS TO ERODE. HOWEVER, KEEPING THINGS IFR
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR VSBYS, LOOKING AT FLUCTUATIONS
BETWEEN VFR TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE, THEN MORE
IFR TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.
OVERALL WINDS STAY SOUTHEAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SWITCH TO NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS ROA/LYH/DAN WED MORNING AND
SOUTHWEST AT BLF. SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS AT BLF THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE 10KTS OR LESS AREAWIDE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT,
AND VFR BY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS
UNSETTLED WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN PERIODIC SUB- VFR, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NF/WP
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