092
FXUS61 KRNK 272340
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY, WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. COOL WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
VERY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75.
MODELS VARY ON COVERAGE BUT IN ESSENCE EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR MOST AREAS, WITH ON OCCASIONAL BURST OF
MODERATE RAIN, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT KEEPS THE RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY BUT FORCING WEAKENS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN WAVES TOMORROW AND MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE PEEKING THROUGH
AND WEDGE ERODING, AS SUN ANGLE HIGH ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THIS.
DESTABLIZATION SEEMS LIMITED BUT ENOUGH SUN COMBINED WITH
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WED AFTERNOON.
AFTER A COOL DAY AND NIGHT, WEDNESDAY SHOULD TEMPS COMING CLOSER
TO NORMAL SINCE ANY SUN COULD BOOST TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR OR TWO.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY.
2. MORE STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
3. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, AHEAD OF A
LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BEGIN MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST, INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL SPARK SOME RAIN SHOWERS FIRST
OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NC BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPANDS TO THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN
THE EAST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY, AND SO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE WARM AND MOIST, THOUGH ANY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE COLD FRONT, THINKING
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE GREATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR WEST
TO UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
2. DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
3. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW,
LEADING TO RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA, THOUGH BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ROUND THE MAIN TROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD,
REACHING UP TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO COOL
STABLE WEDGE OVER AND EAST OF APPALACHIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH
RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES KEEPING CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT FOR
MOST, THEN EXPERIENCING BREAKS TO MVFR BY 18Z WED AS WEDGE
STARTS TO ERODE. UNTIL THEN, MAINTAINING IFR FORECAST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE OBSCURATIONS.
OVERALL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, THEN SWITCH TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS ROA/LYH/DAN WED MORNING AND SOUTHWEST AT
BLF. SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS AT BLF, OTHERWISE 10KTS OR LESS
AREAWIDE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT,
AND VFR BY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS
UNSETTLED WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN PERIODIC SUB-VFR, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM
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