885
FXUS61 KRNK 280744
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, WHEN A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
2. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 12-15 DEGREES WARMER OVER
THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS,
MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WINDFLOW OF COOL, STABLE MARINE AIR INTO
THE MOUNTAINS. RADAR INDICATES RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVERTOP THIS STABLE LAYER, TRIGGERING
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE OCCASIONAL FLASH OF LIGHTNING.
FOR TODAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 29
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, MAKING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AND
OCCASIONAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. WEDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER THE DECREASE OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS, PERHAPS
LETTING OCCASIONAL RAYS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH OTHERWISE CLOUDY
SKIES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY
ABOVE THE STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THESE WOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION.
WITH LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO LIMIT HEATING, HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 12-15 DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OF TUESDAY,
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS AS IT
FIGHTS THE RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ONGOING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
2. THE HIGHEST ODDS FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA, DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY TO BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED
RAIN AND CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS,
WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO AN UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD SPILL
EASTWARD EVEN TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEPART. WHILE THIS WEEK APPEARS LIKELY TO END ON A COOL NOTE,
NEXT WEEK SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE EMERGING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR CONDITIONS TO TURN DRIER BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
2. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE WILL START COOL DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. ONE MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SPIRALING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS DUE TO THIS FEATURE
BEING RATHER SUBTLE. THE MOISTURE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH SHOULD START A WARMING TREND FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALSO BUILD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, RAINFALL CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES COULD RISE
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 220 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WINDFLOW OF
MARINE AIR INTO THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS PROMOTING CEILINGS OF
1KFT OR LESS. LIMITATIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE ALSO PRESENT DUE TO
RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
TODAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIT THIS MORNING, MAKING FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGH, WITH MOST AIRPORTS HOLDING
CEILINGS IN THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. MAY SEE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THAT IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS OF VA AND NC WHERE WEDGING WEAKENS,
INCLUDING AT KDAN. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10KTS, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KBLF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED HOWEVER, WITH AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN PERIODIC
SUB-VFR, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF
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