650
FXUS61 KRNK 282340
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RETREAT TO
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE A WARM FRONT
PASSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MID- ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES INTO TONIGHT, AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2. WEDGE ERODES WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THURSDAY.
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED SOME
SUNSHINE TO GET THROUGH TODAY, MAINLY FOR THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED, AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE REACHED SOUTHEAST WV, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE WV/VA STATE
LINE, AS INSTABILITY IS NEAR ZERO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING, GIVEN HOW MOIST THE GROUND
IS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BLEND
IN CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO SEE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
"BEST" COVERAGE/CHANCES OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MOUNTAINS CLOSER
TO AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE
PER SATELLITE LOOPS IS ABATING, WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
WEDGE.
OVERALL A DRY NIGHT IN STORE BUT LOOK FOR SKIES TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOUDY, MAINLY LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG.
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG BECOMING DENSE EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGES.
A WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT TRACKING FURTHER SOUTHEAST, SO COVERAGE SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM GREENSBORO TO SOUTH BOSTON MAY OCCUR, BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING PLENTIFUL AND LINGERING
BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACHING FRONT, EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY WITH NEAR 80 EAST TO LOWER OR MID 70S
WEST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
2) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH'S AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS IOWA AND KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT BATCH
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE ARE PRIMARILY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PWATS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES, THERE WILL BE
A POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH AREAS THAT
SEE TRAINING STORMS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A DAY THREE
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT ON
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR HIGHS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS, WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) DRIER CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN TO THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, BUT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOW 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT MONDAY, WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT
WIDESPREAD 80S RETURN ON TUESDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
AS SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING SKIES DEVELOP, NAMELY OVER THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THEY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
EAST THAN THE WV/VA STATE LINE, AS INSTABILITY REMAINS NEAR ZERO
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE WEDGE. THEREFORE, HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH FOR KBLF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT THE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS CLOUDS
FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES
NORTHWARD. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS, GIVEN HOW
MOIST THE GROUND IS AND CALM WINDS. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL
HELP LIMIT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND SO THINKING REMAINS
THAT FOG MAY NOT BECOME AS DENSE, AND SO HAVE NOT GONE LOWER
THAN 1SM FOR ANY TERMINALS. LOCATIONS WHERE IT TAKES LONGER FOR
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AGAIN COULD SEE MORE/DENSER FOG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 18Z OR
SO. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY/8PM THURSDAY, THOUGH
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE STORMS REACH, WITH SOME HIGH
RES MODELS KEEPING IT GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64, AND SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KLWB, AND INCLUDED
ONLY VCSH THERE AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18Z OR SO FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, AND WINDS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE, BUT LOW ON VISIBILITIES AND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, WHEN SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LESS
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...AS/WP
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...AS/NF/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page