122
FXUS61 KRNK 290641
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RETREAT TO
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE A WARM FRONT
PASSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MID- ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES INTO TONIGHT, AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2. WEDGE ERODES WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THURSDAY.
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED SOME
SUNSHINE TO GET THROUGH TODAY, MAINLY FOR THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED, AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE REACHED SOUTHEAST WV, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE WV/VA STATE
LINE, AS INSTABILITY IS NEAR ZERO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING, GIVEN HOW MOIST THE GROUND
IS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BLEND
IN CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO SEE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
"BEST" COVERAGE/CHANCES OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MOUNTAINS CLOSER
TO AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE
PER SATELLITE LOOPS IS ABATING, WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
WEDGE.
OVERALL A DRY NIGHT IN STORE BUT LOOK FOR SKIES TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOUDY, MAINLY LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG.
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG BECOMING DENSE EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGES.
A WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT TRACKING FURTHER SOUTHEAST, SO COVERAGE SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM GREENSBORO TO SOUTH BOSTON MAY OCCUR, BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING PLENTIFUL AND LINGERING
BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACHING FRONT, EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY WITH NEAR 80 EAST TO LOWER OR MID 70S
WEST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
2) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH'S AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS IOWA AND KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT BATCH
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE ARE PRIMARILY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PWATS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES, THERE WILL BE
A POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH AREAS THAT
SEE TRAINING STORMS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A DAY THREE
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT ON
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR HIGHS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS, WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) DRIER CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN TO THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, BUT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOW 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT MONDAY, WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT
WIDESPREAD 80S RETURN ON TUESDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING, BUT IS NOW
WEAKENING AND RETREATING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS,
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC, WITH CEILING BASES RANGING FROM 0.5KFT TO 1.8KFT. FOG
IS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN THE LOSS OF COOL AIRFLOW INTO THE REGION, AND WITH MOIST
SOILS HELPING THE AIR REACH SATURATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING,
MAKING FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDSHIFT THAT WILL HELP
ERODE LOW CLOUDS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA. BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH
OF A BLF TO ROA TO LYH LINE, WHERE GREATER DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INCREASE SUPPORTING ENERGY, BUT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO PUT VCTS INTO ALL TAFS EXCEPT LWB.
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET, BUT SOME
WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF THIS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND
TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...AS/WP
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...NF
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