155
FXUS61 KRNK 290742
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RETREAT EAST
TODAY, ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION. ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, SUPPORTED BY A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT, WILL
TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY, USHERING IN DRY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT.
2. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS NO LONGER DRAWING COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC. AS SUCH, MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL IS AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE OVERCAST, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST, A WARM FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST, WITH THE DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO BREAK UP THE LOW
CLOUDS, MAKING FOR AN AFTERNOON MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD,
WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81. MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME, BUT FEEL THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW HOURS OF MINIMAL RAINFALL ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT.
2) STRONGER STORMS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
3) ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME
MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL CAPE CLIMBING TOWARDS 1,000 J/KG WITH
40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS,
THE BEST POTENTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE CONVECTION EXITS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY SATURDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO AN UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. A LITTLE MOISTURE
MAY LEAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF ROUTE 460, BUT IT WILL
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH APPEAR
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY, BUT THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S-70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S-50S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
2) A NOTABLE WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AT THE SURFACE,
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN DRIER AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES ALOFT FROM THE APPROACHING RIDGE. A NOTABLE WARMING
TREND SHOULD COMMENCE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
COULD RISE JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FURTHER INTO THE WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING, BUT IS NOW
WEAKENING AND RETREATING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS,
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC, WITH CEILING BASES RANGING FROM 0.5KFT TO 1.8KFT. FOG
IS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN THE LOSS OF COOL AIRFLOW INTO THE REGION, AND WITH MOIST
SOILS HELPING THE AIR REACH SATURATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING,
MAKING FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
HELP ERODE LOW CLOUDS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, PASSING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND WEST VIRGINIA. BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
FOUND SOUTH OF A BLF TO ROA TO LYH LINE, WHERE GREATER DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING ENERGY, BUT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO PUT VCTS INTO ALL TAFS
EXCEPT LWB. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TOWARD
SUNSET, BUT SOME WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
THIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND
TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF
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