054
FXUS61 KRNK 300656
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. A SECOND FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF
THESE FRONTS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING, STILL DEALING WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM SHORT
WAVE TROF THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN VA. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK LEAVING US WITH
MOIST AND POTENTIALLY FOGGY CONDITIONS. FOG FORMATION WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO
PERMIT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT THE VERY LEAST BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL THE SUN HAS A CHANCE TO
PERMIT MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER...AFTER 0800.
FOR TODAY, EXPECTING A QUIET MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE PATCHY FOG. PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
AFTERNOON. SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW US TO HEAT UP QUICKLY,
BUILDING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING APPEARS TO
FAVOR THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY, ARRIVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
MID-DAY 15-18Z THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM KY
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS MID-DAY,
SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FROM
THE EASTERN KY VICINITY INTO WV AND FAR WESTERN VA. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS FAST-MOVING CELLS AND CLUSTERS SPREAD
EASTWARD FROM THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS/BLUE RIDGE TO THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC COAST.
WHILE A RELATIVELY BROAD REGION COULD SEE ORGANIZED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE AND HAZARDS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. ANY SUPERCELLS WOULD POSE A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRIMARILY A CLUSTER OR LINEAR
MODE, WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT, THOUGH
ISOLATED HAIL AND A TORNADO WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
SCENARIO. GREATER WIND PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF
TRENDS SUPPORT MORE OF A CLUSTER/LINEAR MODE, AND/OR IF
STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ENDS UP BEING REALIZED.
BOTTOM LINE, TODAY WILL BE A BUSY, POTENTIALLY VOLATILE, DAY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ONCE WE GET PAST TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. 85H WINDS (WINDS 5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE) IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE FORECAST AROUND 40 KTS. THIS SHOULD
MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF 20-35 MPH WIND GUSTS. A DROP
IN DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE RESULTING IN COOLER LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...SO BEEFED UP POPS AGAIN FOR OUR WV AND VA/NC
HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
2) DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL START ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOVER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY FROM A NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING. THIS FLOW SHOULD SPARK
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM BOONE TO LEWISBURG. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE WIND
WEAKENS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY APPROACH NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SPIRALS AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY MONDAY, THIS TROUGH WILL EXIT AND GET
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD OFFER DRIER WEATHER FOR
MONDAY, AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND FOR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
SOUTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE EAST
COAST. MEANWHILE, THE MODELS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. EVENTUALLY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL HEAD EASTWARD AND CROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE
INCREASING HEAT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM
THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
EXPECTING SUB-VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z/8AM. AFTER 12Z MIXING FROM SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BRING WHOLESALE IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITY FOLLOWED BY
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE GROUND HEATS MID AND LATE MORNING.
UNSETTLE WEATHER WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 22Z/6PM AS A STRONG CYCLONE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. CYCLONE CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS MID-DAY 15-18Z, THEN EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
WHICH WILL FUEL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A RELATIVELY BROAD REGION COULD SEE ORGANIZED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE AND HAZARDS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. ANY SUPERCELLS WOULD POSE A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRIMARILY A CLUSTER OR LINEAR
MODE, WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT, THOUGH
ISOLATED HAIL AND A TORNADO WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
SCENARIO. GREATER WIND PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF
TRENDS SUPPORT MORE OF A CLUSTER/LINEAR MODE, AND/OR IF
STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ENDS UP BEING REALIZED.
ONCE WE GET PAST TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS 5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ARE FORECAST AROUND 40 KTS. THIS SHOULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF 20-35 MPH WIND GUSTS. MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AND HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR TURBULENCE PER THE GUSTY
CROSS MOUNTAIN BARRIER WINDS THIS AFTN-EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH UP UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A SECONDARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT POTENTIALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE
CLEARING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A RETURN TO VFR EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE SATURDAY...THEN DRYING
OUT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTING VFR
IS EXPECTED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
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