268
FXUS61 KRNK 301812
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. A SECOND FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. PASSAGE
OF THESE FRONTS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
2) PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO MOST RAIN, AND
WILL BRING IN COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
3) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
A LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET WAS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED
AS IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
OUR ENTIRE AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN VA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS ALREADY
MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A SURFACE LOW WAS
DEEPENING ON THIS FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASED FORCING ALOFT. THIS THREAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND VA.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MOST CAMS ARE SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6-8 PM. VERY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE, PLENTY OF SURFACE HEATING, AND MULTIPLE
STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT 850MB (WINDS 5KFT
ABOVE THE SURFACE) IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE FORECAST
AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS. PART OF THIS SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGETOPS. WINDS DIMINISH SOME AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WNW TOMORROW. AGAIN
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON THE RIDGETOPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD STAY JUST SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A DROP IN DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE
RESULTING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING STRATUS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WV
AND WESTERN VA, WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HAVE
CLEARING SKIES.
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, BUT WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE AMOUNT OF FORCING OR MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT WE
HAVE TODAY. STILL, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD CORE LOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THAT WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
2) SHOWER POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL STRETCH SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA. A MOIST NORTHWEST WIND, WILL HAVE
CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE FALLING OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3F-5F COOLER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. TUESDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS WARM AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE AREA, KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH,
BRINGING MAINLY PLAIN RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS. SO FAR LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN ABSENT, BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH ALONG A COLD FRONT SOON AFTER
THIS FIRST ROUND. SEEING MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE SECOND
AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS THREAT LOOKS BEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TONIGHT, AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SCATTER OUT, WHILE STRATUS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR BLF AND LWB. GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS AT 5KFT AGL
FORECASTED TO BE 40 KTS. THIS SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF 20-30 KT WIND GUSTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND HIGH
LIKELIHOOD FOR TURBULENCE PER THE GUSTY CROSS MOUNTAIN BARRIER
WINDS AFTER 21Z FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WIND DIRECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH UP UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A SECONDARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT POTENTIALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN SHRA/TSRA. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CLEARING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
RETURN TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH
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