189
FXUS61 KRNK 310021
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY TO AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS FOR THE REGION SATURDAY DUE TO THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATED NEAR TERM / THROUGH SATURDAY
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
1) TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED
2) GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH AND THE SEVERE WEATHER HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION. THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
DUE TO THE DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE COLD FRONT,
HOWEVER, HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS WITH IT THAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY (TOMORROW). WIND GUSTS, AS USUAL,
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG RIDGETOPS AND MAY BE BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. WHILE
SCATTERED AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
MORE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
2) PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO MOST RAIN, AND
WILL BRING IN COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
3) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
A LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET WAS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED
AS IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
OUR ENTIRE AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN VA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS ALREADY
MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A SURFACE LOW WAS
DEEPENING ON THIS FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASED FORCING ALOFT. THIS THREAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND VA.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MOST CAMS ARE SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6-8 PM. VERY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE, PLENTY OF SURFACE HEATING, AND MULTIPLE
STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT 850MB (WINDS 5KFT
ABOVE THE SURFACE) IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE FORECAST
AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS. PART OF THIS SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGETOPS. WINDS DIMINISH SOME AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WNW TOMORROW. AGAIN
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON THE RIDGETOPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD STAY JUST SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A DROP IN DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE
RESULTING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING STRATUS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WV
AND WESTERN VA, WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HAVE
CLEARING SKIES.
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, BUT WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE AMOUNT OF FORCING OR MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT WE
HAVE TODAY. STILL, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD CORE LOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THAT WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
2) SHOWER POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL STRETCH SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA. A MOIST NORTHWEST WIND, WILL HAVE
CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE FALLING OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3F-5F COOLER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. TUESDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS WARM AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE AREA, KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, SCATTERED CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION REMAIN, KEEPING THE MORE WESTERN TERMINALS AT
MVFR AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS AT VFR. THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KLWB AND KBLF THE MOST
AND BRING THEM TO IFR STATUS OVERNIGHT. WHILE ALL TERMINALS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY SATURDAY (TOMORROW) AFTERNOON,
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REGION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY FORCE ANY TERMINAL BACK INTO SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20-
30 KTS FOR MOST (IF NOT THE ENTIRETY) OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WIND SHEAR SIGNAL HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT SPATIALLY BUT GUIDANCE
FROM MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE TAF/LAMP MODEL, AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHLY SUGGEST MOMENTS OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FLIGHT RULES FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND/WIND GUST FORECAST IS HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
AFTER THE WEEKEND, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TO
PROVIDE VFR STATUS FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...CG/SH
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