040
FXUS61 KRNK 311126
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LATE SPRING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE DAY AS A WHOLE SHOULD FEATURE A
GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING CLOUDS. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
THE WEEK AS A WHOLE IS ALSO LOOKING DRY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) BRISK/COOL NORTHWEST WINDS
2) BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE - ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
LATE SPRING CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER
LOW, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO TODAY, ALBEIT THEY
SHOULD BE FAST MOVING AND NOT STICK AROUND FOR ANY LENGTH OF
TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR
WESTERN VA FROM TAZEWELL INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY WORK AGAINST PRECIP PRODUCTION,
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THERE IS A NOSE OF
MIDLEVEL DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THAT WILL LIKELY WORK AGAINST DEEP CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH THE DRYING ALOFT. THAT SAID, REMOVED
POPS TODAY OVER THE VA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT (ROA/LYH), BUT
MAINTAINED THEM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (LWB-BLF-TNB-AND WEST OF
BCB) AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT (MWK/UKF/GSO) WHERE
LIMITING FACTORS ARE NOT SO PROMINENT.
FOR THE STORMS THAT DO FORM, THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SMALL HAIL...FREEZING LEVEL AS LOW AS 8KFT. WINDS ALOFT ARE
STILL RATHER ROBUST (35-40 KTS AT 5KFT), SO MIX DOWN OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT MAY PROMOTE STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF
THE SHOWERS. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...WORTHY OF A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER WE HAVE A LOT
OF COVERAGE WITHIN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) DUE TO THE
FORECAST DRYING ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR OUR CWA, THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) SEEM TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON
OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA, THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS, NW NC HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN, ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
QUICKLY LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH, FOLLOWED BY DECOUPLING
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
2) AFTER ISOLATED SHOWERS PASS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY, A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SHOULD PASS OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AS IT SPIRALS AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. WHILE THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO TREND
DRIER ACROSS VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN NORTH CAROLINA TO SPARK ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EXIT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
A RESULT, DRIER WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND TAKING PLACE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
2) THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
ADDING THESE TWO ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS TOGETHER YIELDS A CONTINUING
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE
80S SHOULD BECOME COMMONPLACE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD GET STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING, MVFR CLOUD LAYER RESIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH BASES 1-3KFT. SUB-1KFT CLOUD BASE WAS NOTED ALONG THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE VCNTY OF KBLF. THIS
CLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT MID-LATE MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BLF, ALL OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BEFORE 15Z. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, NO RESTRICTIONS FROM CIGS OR
VSBYS THIS MORNING FOR ROA/LYH/DAN.
LOOKING AT THE WEATHER MAP, A LATE SPRING CYCLONE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN EXPECT
TURBULENCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 25
KTS.
AS THE GROUND WARMS EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT LACKING
ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE RAIN CORES. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE VCNTY OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
AFTER THE WEEKEND, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TO
PROVIDE VFR STATUS FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
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