379
FXUS61 KRNK 131332
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
932 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK GIVEN WARM AND MOIST AIR
SITUATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START THE WEEK SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JULY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 925 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THE NEAR TERM UPDATE THIS MORNING, HAVE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT HAS HAD SOME PERSISTENCE NEAR BLUEFIELD AND SOME
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SEEN GOING INTO THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL
CAM CONSENSUS SEEMS TO HOLD OFF, HOWEVER, ON THE MAIN TRIGGERING
AND STORM POTENTIAL AFTER ABOUT 1-3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A BIT GREATER CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND
DAMAGING WINDS/LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN PROGGED HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND PWATS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 210 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM.
2) A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAIN RIVER
VALLEYS, AS WELL AS LOCATIONS WITH WET SOILS FROM RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY EVENING. VISIBILITIES IN THESE AREAS MAY FALL TO 100
FEET OR LESS BY DAWN, MAKING FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM GIVEN ANOTHER
DAY OF STRONG HEATING UPON US.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO THE PIEDMONT BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, MORE SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. STORMS ANYWHERE WITHIN
OUR AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY, AND SOME MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH
3" TO 4" PER HOUR RATES, AND THEREFORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND THEN WANE GRADUALLY AS
SUNSET APPROACHES.
THE PATTERN REPEATS TONIGHT, WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG AND CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY OF THE
PERIOD.
2) INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
MIDWEEK.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY HALF OF THE WORKWEEK,
AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT. WHILE AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST
COVERAGE. DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA,
WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE CONVECTION TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. ALSO, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FORMS NEAR FLORIDA
WILL ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER, DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK LEESIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT
MONDAY MAY SEE FEWER STORMS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK, FURTHER
INSTIGATING AFTERNOON STORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
NEAR FLORIDA ALSO PUSHES WEST, ALLOWING FOR MORE MOISTURE FLOW
TO RETURN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
CONCERN EACH DAY, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. QPF FOR THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH AREA-WIDE. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WHERE THE STORMS MISS
ALTOGETHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWER 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 80S AREA-WIDE, THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
WITH THE STALLED-OUT FRONT IN THE AREA. LOWS EACH MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED, KEEPING AFTERNOON STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
2) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, AS THE BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STALLED FRONT
FIZZLES OUT, THOUGH A PERSISTENT LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE LIFT, WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL FURTHER ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, POSSIBLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE LOW. POPS REMAIN MODEST FOR NOW, AROUND 40-60%
EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE. THIS IS DUE TO
THE BERMUDA HIGH SLIGHTLY SHIFTING WESTWARD, ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF LOW DOING THE SAME. IF THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH WEST, IT WOULD BLOCK THE MOISTURE FLOW, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR THE PIEDMONT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THIS FAR OUT. THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT
ONCE AGAIN STALLS BEFORE CLEARING THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT EACH DAY, MAINLY IN
THE 80S FOR THURSDAY AREA-WIDE. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS
CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES, WITH LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS INCREASING
TO THE LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS EACH MORNING WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EDT SUNDAY...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RIVER VALLEY FOG IS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING. FOLLOWING
PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS, HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN MULTIPLE
TAFS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOG
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 1230Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 15Z, WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON IN WIDELY
SCATTERED FASHION. STORMS WILL AGAIN PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LIFR VISIBILITIES IN BRIEF BUT INTENSE RAIN. NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TODAY THAT HAVE ENTER MENTION OF STORMS
INTO SOME OF THE TAFS. LESS CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF STORMS
HOWEVER, SO ENTERED THE WINDOW OF WHEN THEY ARE MOST LIKELY INTO
THE TAFS, THOUGH THEY COULD OCCUR BEFORE OR AFTER THE
TIMEFRAME. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET, WITH
A FEW STORMS LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK, REMAINING CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
FORECASTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING PRIOR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...AB/NF
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NF
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