697
FXUS61 KRNK 141030
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
630 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD FEATURE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
TO THE NORTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT DUE TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
3) A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE MOIST GROUND
FROM RECENT RAINFALL, BUT THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM
EDT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO
LINE UP WITH THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS, SO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S, WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER LATER TONIGHT, AND FOG POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE NOTABLE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE PERIOD.
2) SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS WEEK, AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP MOISTURE CONTENT ELEVATED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THANKS TO CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S/70S AREA-WIDE,
WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OFF TO OUR NORTH. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
WIDELY ANTICIPATED, DUE TO LIMITED SURFACE FORCING AND A LACK OF
SHEAR, THOUGH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR THURSDAY, THE STALLED FRONT RETREATS NORTH, BUT A SURFACE
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO BE MORE SCATTERED AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES ANTICIPATED. WPC HAS
MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY DUE TO THESE FACTORS, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR PARTS OF
OUR AREA THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE ON
AVERAGE FROM 0.50-1.00", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THE
HEAVIER, SLOWER-MOVING STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
80S AREAWIDE. THURSDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER,
ALLOWING PIEDMONT LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LOWS
EACH MORNING WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES DECREASE LATE WEEK, BUT DAILY STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD MID TO
LATE WEEK, EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AS IT DOES SO,
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. THIS COMBINATION
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND BE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S/70S, CAUSING DAILY
AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THEY
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION OF THE
RIDGE, THEREFORE, POPS ARE KEPT AROUND 30-50% EACH DAY. THE
BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES WEST, A WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL FURTHER
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHORT-LIVED. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS BACK EAST, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONCE AGAIN STALLS, HEADING
INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EACH DAY. LOWS STAY CONSISTENT AS
WELL, IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS SUCH AS LWB AND BCB. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z THIS MORNING, OR 9 AM EDT. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY, BUT A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THREAT, AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ANY STORM APPROACH A TERMINAL DIRECTLY. CONVECTION WILL
TAPER LATER TONIGHT, AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE HIGHEST DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED AFTERNOON
STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ024-034-035-044>047-058-059.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PW
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