004
FXUS61 KRNK 141820
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD FEATURE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
TO THE NORTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT DUE TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY TO OUR NORTH. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WITH AMPLE
HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DCAPES
OF 600-700 J/KG, AND SBCAPE OF 2500-2500 J/KG ARE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE, BUT WE ARE LACKING ALMOST ANY MEANINGFUL SHEAR, AND
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS RATHER PULSEY ENVIRONMENT LENDS
ITSELF TO MOSTLY SINGLE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND WIND DAMAGE AS
THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER SUPPORT OF THE SHORTWAVE COULD ALLOW
A FEW CELLS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND FORM A MULTICELLULAR
STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION, THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS APPROACHING
2" ARE QUITE JUICY, AND MOST CELLS WILL GENERATE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. WITH SATURATED SOIL MOISTURES FROM A LOT OF RECENT RAIN,
THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED AND URBAN FLOODING. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
NORTH, BUT WE REMAIN WELL SITUATED IN A WARM AND MOIST SECTOR.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOWER FOR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE SOUPY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE. ASIDE
FROM PERHAPS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT, THERE
ISN'T MUCH TO HONE IN ON AS FAR AS LARGER SCALE FORCING SO THE
DIURNAL DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC COMPONENTS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THEN OTHER DEVELOPMENT
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTING
WINDS FROM HYDROMETEOR LOADED DOWNDRAFTS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH DEVELOPMENT.
MAX TEMPS AT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMS
GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) LIKE THE SHORT TERM, DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE REGIME MAY BE A BIT MORE OF A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE HIGH OFF THE SE COAST
RETROGRADES WESTWARD. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO ALTER THE AMPLY MOIST
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SO EXPECTING THE DAILY
DOSAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE.
AGAIN, THERE COULD BE THE DUAL THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
FROM WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING.
MAX TEMPS AT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMS
GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
PATCHY VFR CLOUDS WILL PEPPER THE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
REAL AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CORES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH THE
GREATEST POSSIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT REGION. IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS CAN BE STRONG AND THE DIRECTION
WILL BE ERRATIC. VISIBILITY CAN DROP QUICKLY WITH HEAVY RAIN,
AND AVAILABLE LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A STORM WILL BE REDUCED
WITH LOWERING AND DENSE CLOUDS.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS LOWERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO IFR/LIFR CIGS.
FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES IN THE REGION, POTENTIALLY
DROPPING UNDER 1SM FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHER THAN WINDS GENERATED BY THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO BE SOUTHERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE HIGHEST DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED AFTERNOON
STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ024-034-035-
044>047-058-059.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...PW/VFJ
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