441
FXUS61 KRNK 150003
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD FEATURE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
TO THE NORTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 750 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT DUE TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. SOME HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS THIS CONVECTION MORPHING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR
STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHSIDE AND EASTERN VA LATER
TONIGHT, BUT THINKING OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES, AND DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IS LOST. THE
STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, AND SO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE STORMS. TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE
SAME LOCATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 3" TO 4" PER HOUR.
ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS, AND COULD DOWN TREES AND
POWERLINES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY TO OUR NORTH. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WITH AMPLE
HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DCAPES
OF 600-700 J/KG, AND SBCAPE OF 2500-2500 J/KG ARE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE, BUT WE ARE LACKING ALMOST ANY MEANINGFUL SHEAR, AND
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS RATHER PULSEY ENVIRONMENT LENDS
ITSELF TO MOSTLY SINGLE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND WIND DAMAGE AS
THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER SUPPORT OF THE SHORTWAVE COULD ALLOW
A FEW CELLS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND FORM A MULTICELLULAR
STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION, THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS APPROACHING
2" ARE QUITE JUICY, AND MOST CELLS WILL GENERATE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. WITH SATURATED SOIL MOISTURES FROM A LOT OF RECENT RAIN,
THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED AND URBAN FLOODING. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
NORTH, BUT WE REMAIN WELL SITUATED IN A WARM AND MOIST SECTOR.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOWER FOR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE SOUPY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE. ASIDE
FROM PERHAPS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT, THERE
ISN'T MUCH TO HONE IN ON AS FAR AS LARGER SCALE FORCING SO THE
DIURNAL DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC COMPONENTS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THEN OTHER DEVELOPMENT
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTING
WINDS FROM HYDROMETEOR LOADED DOWNDRAFTS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH DEVELOPMENT.
MAX TEMPS AT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMS
GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) LIKE THE SHORT TERM, DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE REGIME MAY BE A BIT MORE OF A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE HIGH OFF THE SE COAST
RETROGRADES WESTWARD. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO ALTER THE AMPLY MOIST
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SO EXPECTING THE DAILY
DOSAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE.
AGAIN, THERE COULD BE THE DUAL THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
FROM WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING.
MAX TEMPS AT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMS
GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT MONDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN, WHICH CAN QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE VFR, BUT WILL ALSO LOWER IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND MORE SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY IN THE WEST, UP TO 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC. THESE
STORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING A LOT OF LIGHTNING, WHICH POSES AN
ADDITIONAL HAZARD.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED FOG AT
ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KROA, AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER IN FOG FORMATION THERE. SOME FOG COULD BE DENSE, POSSIBLY
DECREASING VISIBILITIES TO 1SM OR LOWER. FOG WILL START TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z OR SO FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT
18Z OR SO, FIRST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, AND THEN EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, BUT LOW IN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE HIGHEST DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED AFTERNOON
STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ024-034-035-
044>047-058-059.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...AS/VFJ
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...AS/PW
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