039
FXUS61 KRNK 150838
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
438 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY WITH A DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STORMS
BEING VERY RAIN EFFICIENT. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IF A STORM LINGERS OVER
AN AREA FOR EVEN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2PM-MIDNIGHT FOR COUNTIES MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH LED TO YESTERDAY'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STILL LINGERS ALOFT. STORMS CONGEALED INTO AN MCS LAST NIGHT AND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM IS ALIGNED E-W
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. AS CAPE INCREASES FROM DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY ALONG BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY THE BLUE RIDGE. PATTERN
RECOGNITION SEEMS TO POINT AT THE SAME OVERALL INITIATION TREND
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP VCNTY OF RIDGE LINE WHERE OROGRAPHICS
PROVIDE THE INITIAL LIFT...THE STORMS THEN DRIFTING EAST WITH
THE MEAN WIND. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 MPH, SO
STORMS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE EXISTING MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OR
FOLLOW THEIR OWN INDUCED DOWNDRAFT INDUCED BOUNDARIES. EITHER
WAY, EXPECT MOVEMENT TO BE IN SLOW MOTION AND WITH PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES, THE STORMS WILL BE VERY RAIN EFFICIENT. RAINFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING IF A STORM LINGERS OVER AN AREA FOR EVEN A SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME. THAT SAID, HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING, WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON THE COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. MAXT WILL DEPEND A LOT ON WHETHER YOU GET A
THUNDERSTORM OVER YOUR AREA PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. GENERAL
FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, BUT COULD
FORESEE SOME HOME TOWNS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AGAIN,
IF STORM INITIATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR NIGHT TIME CONDITIONS, SAME OL SAME OL, WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS REMAINING DUE TO THE HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) CONDITIONS WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WORK WEEK.
A RELENTLESS STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS STALLED TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE LOWER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
MID 70S. THIS COMBINATION OF HEAT AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHICAL LIFT SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIR MASS, ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND NOTABLE LIGHTNING. ANY FLOODING
THREAT FROM TRAINING OF STORMS OR ANY SEVERE THREAT DUE TO WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EVERY AFTERNOON.
2) LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, THE ONGOING STRETCH OF
ACTIVE WEATHER DUE TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BAROCLINIC ZONE
STILL APPEARS TO REMAIN STUCK TO THE NORTH FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WHICH WILL KEEP THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HARDLY ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN THE AIR MASS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE MODELS, SO THE DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS HEAT AND MOISTURE COMBINES WITH
OROGRAPHICAL LIFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE STAYING MOIST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, EXPECT PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN YESTERDAY. VARIED AMOUNTS OF FOG/STRATUS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS FOR THIS MORNING. FOG WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z OR SO FOR MOST EXPECTING A TRANSITION BACK TO VFR BETWEEN
13-15Z.
SIMILAR TO MONDAY, EXPECTING CLOUD BUILDUPS EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...18Z AND BEYOND WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE BETWEEN 20-24Z.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, BUT LOW IN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS TEND TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST THEN DRIFT
EAST WITH THE MEAN WIND. MEAN WINDS TODAY ARE LESS THAN 10 MPH,
SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ORGANIZED, SO LOOK FOR RANDOM CELLS WHICH MAY CLUSTER
OR MERGE TOGETHER INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COME TOGETHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AFTERNOON STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
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