058
FXUS61 KRNK 151813
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY WITH A DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STORMS
BEING VERY RAIN EFFICIENT. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IF A STORM LINGERS OVER
AN AREA FOR EVEN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
2) A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2PM-MIDNIGHT FOR COUNTIES MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WITH INCREASED CAPE AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY,
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
RIDGELINES WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AID THE INITIAL INSTABILITY.
A LIGHT MEAN WIND WILL CAUSE MOST STORMS TO DRIFT ALMOST
AIMLESSLY WITH A SLOW SPEED, AND NEW STORMS WILL LARGELY BE
OUTFLOW DRIVEN. PWATS TODAY ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH, MUCH LIKE
RECENT AFTERNOONS AS WELL, RANGING FROM 1.5-2" WHERE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE PIEDMONT. RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, AND RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING. INSIDE OF A SLOW MOVING CELL, FLASH FLOODING
COULD BEGIN QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WHICH
HAVE SATURATED SOILS (WHICH IS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE). A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT TO ADDRESS THESE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE
OCCURRENCE OF STORMS AND THE LENGTH OF TIME SPENT UNDERNEATH
THOSE STORMS. BLOCKING INSOLATION AND COOL DOWNDRAFTS IN THE
CORE OF A CELL WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED COOLING.
WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST WILL EFFECTIVELY BE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST,
AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH REMAINS AND THE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL BE HIGH IN MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL IN
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN RATES IS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 102 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) CONDITIONS WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WILL RUN IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST.
WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL 3F-8F
WARMER THAN THEY ACTUAL ARE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO SPARK SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. SOME ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING
STORMS MAY ALSO DROP 3+ INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH A WET
WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EVERY AFTERNOON.
2) LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP ITS WARM AND HUMID INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MAY STALL TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND THE
FREQUENCY OF STORMS TO INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAYTIME, EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR LEVELS, AND
THE PREVAILING VSBY TO BE HIGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS, WIND DIRECTION CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY AND STRONG
GUSTS CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE NOTICE. SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING, WHICH CAN REDUCE VSBY QUICKLY.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO RECENT MORNINGS. LOTS OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL MAKE FOR LOW CIGS DROPPING INTO
IFR/LIFR RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO REDUCE VSBY, MOSTLY AT RNK/BLF/LWB UNTIL SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY BURNS IT OFF AND HELPS ELEVATE CIGS BACK ABOVE 3KFT
(VFR).
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AFTERNOON STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-
043>047-058-059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/VFJ
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