854
FXUS61 KRNK 161037
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
637 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY WITH A DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. NEAR SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
2) SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH, HIGH HUMIDITY, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM FOR MID-
JULY...WITH 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 IN THE PIEDMONT.
DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO BACKBUILD JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT
STORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TODAY FAVORING MORE SUBSIDENCE FOR
AREAS NEAR DANVILLE. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE ALSO FORECAST
TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL PARALLEL THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGELINES, SO STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND MAY NOT
DRIFT AS FAR EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THAT
SAID, WENT 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND 20-40 PERCENT FOR THE PIEDMONT REFLECTING THE
RELATIVE MINIMUM OVER THE PIEDMONT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARIES WITHIN OUR CWA TODAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TO GET
ORGANIZED LOCALLY...WITH PULSE STORM MODE BEING FAVORED FOR ALL
BUT THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A LINE OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PA INTO
THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY, SO ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THIS FRONT MAY KICK OFF AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH,
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A MARGINAL RISK
FOR STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT, LOOKING AT ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.
THIS AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT. ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR ALL BUT MAYBE THE NORTHERN
CWA WHERE BOUNDARY ENCROACHMENT FROM AFOREMENTIONED ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK.
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST, ABUNDANT INSTABILITY SHOULD
SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURS DURING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS POSE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WET MICROBURSTS THAT COULD BLOW DOWN TREES
AND POWER LINES, AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) HARDLY ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY,
IT SHOULD STALL AGAIN AND REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDING THE ONGOING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH OROGRAPHICAL LIFT SHOULD PERMIT A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BECAUSE THE AIR MASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY NOTABLE CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID. THIS PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW AN ONGOING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
WET MICROBURSTS, AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN ANY OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY LIFT BETWEEN
12-14Z. STORM CHANCES TODAY WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUD
BUILDUPS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGELINES, MORPHING INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS DEEP CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LOCAL BRIEF INSTANCES OF SUB-VFR. LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
STEERING WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, PARALLELING THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SPEEDS 5 TO 15KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AFTERNOON STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
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