158
FXUS61 KRNK 161832
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
232 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY WITH A DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. NEAR SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE SIT SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS, THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
SURFACE INSTABILITY (FROM DIURNAL HEATING) TO CAUSE CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A BROAD
RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS BUILDING WEST A BIT TODAY, SO
THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPRESSION IN THE PIEDMONT AND
CENTRAL VA AREAS. THE RIDGE IS ALSO PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, SO MOST STORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL HAVE A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ALONG
OR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF SAID RIDGE IS
NOT AS STRONG AND CONVECTION CAN OCCUR MORE FREELY.
THE HEAVIEST ACTION WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ABOVE, OWING TO THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE ENCROACHING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, BUT
IT IS NOT AS CONCERNING FOR FLOODING ISSUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. EXPECT EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY, AND HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 100F IN THE PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 102 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONT, CAUGHT IN ZONAL FLOW, WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVES TRACKING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. SPOTTY
STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.
SOME ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO DROP 3+ INCHES OF RAIN IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH A WET WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND 5F WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 90S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 124 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN INTO MONDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
INSTABILITIES LOOKS WEAK. IF ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD DEVELOP, IT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. IF THIS WEDGE
IS STRONG ENOUGH AND PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS, TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BE DRY. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH A FEW AIRPORTS
REPORTING MVFR CIGS DUE TO PATCHES OF RAINFALL OR DENSER CLOUD
COVER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SW AT 5-10KT, BUT WILL CALM TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. STORM FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND LESS COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STORMS
WILL GENERATE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN THEIR VICINITY THAT COULD
BLOW IN DIRECTIONS OTHER THAN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER IN THE EARLY AM, POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW IFR
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH STORMS
BEGINNING TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AFTERNOON STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/VFJ
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