896
FXUS61 KRNK 162342
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY WITH A DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. NEAR SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ONLY WATCHING A COUPLE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME, IN
THE VA SOUTHSIDE, AND GREENBRIER COUNTY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
OF VA, THE LATER OF WHICH IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING. ONE
LARGE AREA OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND IS TRACKING EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, LOOKING TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
THE AREA MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST
GETS TO THE AREA, AS THE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO RELAX.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS CURRENTLY
OVER OH WILL MAKE IT PAST THE BLUE RIDGE, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS THE STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST, WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US/WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING FARTHER WEST. NEVERTHELESS, THESE
STORMS WILL STILL BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN HOW
MOIST THE AIRMASS IS, AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 215 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
AS WE SIT SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY IN A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS, THERE
IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SURFACE INSTABILITY (FROM
DIURNAL HEATING) TO CAUSE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A BROAD RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
IS BUILDING WEST A BIT TODAY, SO THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPRESSION IN THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA AREAS. THE RIDGE IS
ALSO PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SO MOST STORMS THAT FORM
TODAY WILL HAVE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. MOST
STORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ALONG OR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF SAID RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AND CONVECTION CAN
OCCUR MORE FREELY.
THE HEAVIEST ACTION WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ABOVE, OWING TO THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE ENCROACHING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, BUT
IT IS NOT AS CONCERNING FOR FLOODING ISSUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. EXPECT EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY, AND HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 100F IN THE PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 102 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONT, CAUGHT IN ZONAL FLOW, WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVES TRACKING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. SPOTTY
STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.
SOME ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO DROP 3+ INCHES OF RAIN IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH A WET WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND 5F WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 90S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 124 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN INTO MONDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
INSTABILITIES LOOKS WEAK. IF ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD DEVELOP, IT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. IF THIS WEDGE
IS STRONG ENOUGH AND PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS, TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BE DRY. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A COUPLE
EXCEPTIONS, AT KDAN AND IN THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV AREA, WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED. THIS TREND OF PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS, WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STORMS ALSO TO THE WEST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ARE TRACKING CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND LOOK TO REACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY
MIDNIGHT, OR BY 03Z THURSDAY AT THE EARLIEST, AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVERALL MAY INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO RELAX. HOW FAR EAST PAST THE BLUE
RIDGE THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER IS UNCERTAIN, AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO LESS ACTIVITY IN THE PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHSIDE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH
FOR TERMINALS WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS, EXCLUDING KLYH AND KDAN
GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY, BUT LIFTING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY, SUCH AS KLWB, BUT WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE GROUND STARTS TO
WARM WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO PLAY
OUT SIMILARLY TO TODAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY THE MID AFTERNOON, AS THE WESTERLY WINDS EASE.
OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY, UP TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS THURSDAY, BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION IS LIKELY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS, LIKE THE 29 KNOT
GUST OBSERVED AT KDAN WITHIN THE LAST 60 MINUTES AS A
THUNDERSTORM MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, WHICH CAN LEAD TO QUICK
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PROVIDING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AFTERNOON STORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AS/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AS/PM
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