396
FXUS61 KRNK 050717
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO WEDGING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOISTURE GETTING DISLODGED NORTH OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WILL PERIODICALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION STARTING
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BATCHES OF MODERATE RAINFALL
FOR THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CAROLINAS COASTLINE
MAY DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES BY THIS WEEKEND FOR THE AREA. OVERALL THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THAT HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING
BY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS NW NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EASTERLY FLOW IS AIDING IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF
THE DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK
TROUGHING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY OVER THE TOP
OF THE WEDGE THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON RAINFALL
PLACEMENT AND TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO
REMAIN MUCH DRIER FOR THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW NORTH
CAROLINA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH PORTIONS OF NW
NORTH CAROLINA GETTING SEVERAL BATCHES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
CAM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR HAS SOME RAINFALL FOR THIS AREA;
HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT SHOW HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AS
THE CURRENT RAINFALL KEEPS THE REGION STABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON
WHETHER WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR, THE CHANCE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
THE 460 CORRIDOR. WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS BATCHES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
PUSH NORTH OUT OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOW TO MID
70S AND A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 60S EXPECTED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US, WITH CLOCKWISE FLOW CAUSING A WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEDGE REMAINS STRONG THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST, BUT
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF
AND THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH
AID FROM THE UPPER TROUGH, WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO
FORM. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY, WITH A SURGE OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR NC COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TO THE NORTH.
SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
FLUCTUATE AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL TRY TO LIMIT RAIN
COVERAGE. HOWEVER, A PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP HEAVY CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
DETERMINING HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA,
WHICH COULD VASTLY CHANGE THE FORECAST. WHILE POPS ARE KEPT MODEST
FOR NOW, AROUND 30-50%, THIS COULD GO UP IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT
INTO OUR AREA LATE WEEK.
RAIN TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH AROUND
0.25" ON AVERAGE NORTH OF US-460, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. TO THE SOUTH, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
AS HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT THERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INFLUENCE OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH DAILY AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY
SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO RETREAT OUT OF
THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BACK. AN UPPER
RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE
AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING
DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS. POPS ARE KEPT AROUND 30-50%, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
THE ABOVE FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED BASED ON WHEN/IF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR, AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
BOTH LOCATION AND DIRECTION OF TRAVEL OF ANY LOW THAT MAY FORM.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WEAK SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY FORM OFF THE
COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND MOVE
GENERALLY NORTH. WHILE YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS MOVED THE LOW AND
MOISTURE INLAND, TODAY'S RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING AWAY.
NO MATTER THE LOCATION, MOISTURE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH WOULD INCREASE POPS
IF MORE CONFIDENCE IS GAINED.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. THIS INCREASES INTO THE 70S/80S SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S BY
MONDAY. LOWS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND, TO MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERTAKEN MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LYH, DAN, LWB, AND ROA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT, AND SHOULD MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS
BY DAY BREAK, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LYH. THIS RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE REGION; HOWEVER, MOST OBSERVATIONS WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY RAINING HAVE REMAINED ABOVE MVFR LEVELS THUS FAR.
NEVERTHELESS, PERIODS OF MVFR LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NEARLY
ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LWB COULD
AGAIN EXPERIENCE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY; HOWEVER, WITH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, IT
IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR TO LEAD TO RIVER
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS TO
PERSIST TODAY, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGE AS LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND SUB-VFR IS LIKELY AT TIMES, AND MORE SO
LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL, EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AT TIMES
MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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