632
FXUS61 KRNK 051729
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A WEDGE OF
COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL PERIODICALLY PUSH RAIN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
YOU CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
FRONT STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME, PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DIVERGENCE, COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CENTERING ON THE BETTER PROBABILITIES
STAYING ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
WV.
WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE INSTABILITY IS NEXT TO NONE, SO A MAINLY
STRATIFORM RAIN CHANCE INTO WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST VA MTNS INTO WV WHERE OUTSIDE THE WEDGE,
LIMITED SUNSHINE COULD BRING SBCAPES UP AROUND 500 J/KG LEADING
TO A FEW STORMS WED AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS FLOODING CONCERNS, LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT THIS INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME TRAINING OF STEADY RAIN MAY
CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS OR MINOR STREET FLOODING IN
THE URBAN AREA OVER THE PIEDMONT BUT NOT A FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US, WITH CLOCKWISE FLOW CAUSING A WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEDGE REMAINS STRONG THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST, BUT
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF
AND THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH
AID FROM THE UPPER TROUGH, WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO
FORM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE AS DRIER
AIR FROM THE WEST WILL TRY TO LIMIT RAIN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP HEAVY CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE LATE WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING
HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA, WHICH COULD
VASTLY CHANGE THE FORECAST. WHILE POPS ARE KEPT MODEST FOR NOW,
AROUND 30-50%, THIS COULD GO UP IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO
OUR AREA LATE WEEK.
RAIN TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH AROUND
0.25" ON AVERAGE NORTH OF US-460, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. TO THE SOUTH, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
AS HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT THERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INFLUENCE OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH DAILY AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY
SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO RETREAT OUT OF
THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BACK. AN UPPER
RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE
AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING
DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS. POPS ARE KEPT AROUND 30-50%, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
THE ABOVE FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED BASED ON WHEN/IF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR, AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
BOTH LOCATION AND DIRECTION OF TRAVEL OF ANY LOW THAT MAY FORM.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WEAK SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY FORM OFF THE
COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND MOVE
GENERALLY NORTH. WHILE YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS MOVED THE LOW AND
MOISTURE INLAND, TODAY'S RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING AWAY.
NO MATTER THE LOCATION, MOISTURE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH WOULD INCREASE POPS
IF MORE CONFIDENCE IS GAINED.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. THIS INCREASES INTO THE 70S/80S SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S BY
MONDAY. LOWS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND, TO MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MVFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE LOWER
CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND AT TIMES SOUTHSIDE VA/DAN.
ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE OVER DAN AND SOUTH AND EAST.
SHOULD TREND THIS WAY INTO THIS EVENING, THEN RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING SO BETTER RAIN AT DAN/LYH DURING THIS TIME, WHILE
CEILINGS/VSBY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR.
CEILINGS/SURFACE VSBY COULD DROP AS LOW AS LIFR AT LWB LATER
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON THAT GIVEN CLOUDS,
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ELSEWHERE, ROA/BCB/BLF SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 8KTS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PATTERN STAY SIMILAR INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTH OF LOW VERSUS DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCE WILL REMAIN BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND SUB-VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
SUB-VFR MORE LIKELY LATE AT NIGHTS THROUGH MIDDAY EACH DAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WP
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