229
FXUS61 KRNK 051741
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A WEDGE OF
COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL PERIODICALLY PUSH RAIN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
YOU CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
FRONT STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME, PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DIVERGENCE, COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CENTERING ON THE BETTER PROBABILITIES
STAYING ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
WV.
WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE INSTABILITY IS NEXT TO NONE, SO A MAINLY
STRATIFORM RAIN CHANCE INTO WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST VA MTNS INTO WV WHERE OUTSIDE THE WEDGE,
LIMITED SUNSHINE COULD BRING SBCAPES UP AROUND 500 J/KG LEADING
TO A FEW STORMS WED AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS FLOODING CONCERNS, LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT THIS INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME TRAINING OF STEADY RAIN MAY
CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS OR MINOR STREET FLOODING IN
THE URBAN AREA OVER THE PIEDMONT BUT NOT A FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
..AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP US WEDGED IN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING, THICK CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKY, AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN WILL FALL TO KEEP THINGS FEELING DAMP. TO AMPLIFY THIS, THERE
IS AN AREA OF TROPICAL INTEREST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY BOTH EXIST.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WEDGE IS THE BLOCKING OF THE MAJORITY OF
INSOLATION, KEEPING THE ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEDGING
AIR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EVEN FURTHER SUPPRESSED AS THERE IS LITTLE
SUNLIGHT TO WARM THINGS UP. IN ADDITION, THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE TEMPERATURE TO FLUCTUATE.
THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL APPLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SATURDAY
COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. A WAVE WILL BE MOVING
EAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, AND
BY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE WEDGE-CAUSING HIGH OUT OF
POSITION. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF EROSION, SATURDAY COULD SEE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY GROW, AGAIN MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
BELOW THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS DISCUSSED, BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY HERE TO STAY THIS WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70S, WITH THE PIEDMONT BREAKING INTO THE LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE WEDGE AS WELL, WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
..AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WEDGE ERODES AND TEMPERATURES HEAD BACK TO NORMAL
BY SUNDAY THE WEDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL
MOSTLY BE ERODED AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, AS WE KEEP AN EYE ON AN AREA OF TROPICAL INTEREST
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION,
THE NHC GIVES THIS ZONE A 40% CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHETHER THE CYCLONE FORMS AND WHAT TRACK
IT TAKES WILL DRIVE A LOT OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST INCLUDES DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT IN A BENIGN, STANDARD AUGUST ENVIRONMENT, WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH.
WITH THE WEDGE GONE, EXPECT THE MERCURY IN YOUR THERMOMETER TO RISE
AS WE GET MORE SUNLIGHT AND LESS COOL AIR ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MVFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE LOWER
CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND AT TIMES SOUTHSIDE VA/DAN.
ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE OVER DAN AND SOUTH AND EAST.
SHOULD TREND THIS WAY INTO THIS EVENING, THEN RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING SO BETTER RAIN AT DAN/LYH DURING THIS TIME, WHILE
CEILINGS/VSBY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR.
CEILINGS/SURFACE VSBY COULD DROP AS LOW AS LIFR AT LWB LATER
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON THAT GIVEN CLOUDS,
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ELSEWHERE, ROA/BCB/BLF SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 8KTS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PATTERN STAY SIMILAR INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTH OF LOW VERSUS DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCE WILL REMAIN BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND SUB-VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
SUB-VFR MORE LIKELY LATE AT NIGHTS THROUGH MIDDAY EACH DAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...WP
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